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Physical Gold Remains Over +1,000 an Ounce

Physical Gold Remains Over +1,000 an Ounce
Gold buffalo 1oz coins are trading between 300 to 400 over spot price on ebay.

Market Oracle
October 24, 2008

It appears that there is a common refrain going around the investment community. It goes something like this:

“Gold should be doing better, and, since it isn’t, I am not going to buy it”

Investors who believe this are making the mistake of thinking COMEX gold is the same as real physical gold. It is not.

COMEX gold is a form of debt. It involves one party promising to produce gold (money) to another at a future date. Like all forms of debt, a COMEX futures contract is only as good as the counterparty behind the contract. Right now, because of low margin requirements, sellers of gold futures only have enough gold to cover 10% of outstanding contracts stored in COMEX warehouses. Considering that the biggest sellers of gold futures contract are insolvent financial institutions, it is obvious that COMEX gold has enormous counterparty risks . If even a quarter of outstanding contracts asked for physical delivery, it would be enough to guarantee a default. Since a financial collapse would actually creates the risk total default (insolvent banks can’t produce the gold or cash), COMEX gold fails miserably as a safe haven . This is why COMEX gold prices are falling, while physical gold is disappearing from the market place

Because of scarcity, physical gold is selling at an enormous premium to gold spot price (which is set by COMEX). How big a premium? Well, on eBay 2008 gold buffalo are trading between 300 to 400 over spot price. That is a 50% premium. The enormous premiums being paid in the physical market means that a large number of December gold contract holders are likely to request delivery. A volume, whether it causes defaults or not, is likely to change the marketplace perception of gold and cause a rush of into a physical gold plagued by shortages. Gold will skyrocket over 2000 in a matter of days.

I am not the only person who believes COMEX gold futures are on the verge of collapse. I urge you to watch this video (skip to 11 minute mark) and read the extract below to see what others are saying about paper gold:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1e9y7ci80D0

Why Gold Is Down When It Should Be Up
http://noworldsystem.com/2008/10/26..-is-down-when-it-should-be-up/

Demand For Gold Soars
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/financ..-gold-soars-has-price-tumbles.html

Fitch says gold price will hold up reasonably well over 12-18 months
http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/vie..=Detail

 



Why Gold Is Down When It Should Be Up

Why Gold Is Down When It Should Be Up

Alex_Wallenwein
The Market Oracle
October 13, 2008

Why is gold dropping right now when anyone in their sane mind would expect it to rise? The simple answer to this question is, “because Comex-gold isn’t gold” – and because it deceptively pretends to be ‘the’ price-setter for real gold.

Gold is gold, paper is paper, and “Comex gold” is nothing but paper masquerading as gold while simultaneously pretending to be the price-setting medium for actual gold in the world. Now, finally, Comex-gold is in the process of being unmasked.

The real supply and demand determinants for Comex gold are not actual gold investors but fund managers . Fund managers are inextricably intertwined with the world of contract-based credit instruments. They use bet on Comex gold contracts to hedge their other (currently horrendously losing) bets with something they all, in their in-bred belief in paper markets, believe will ‘go up’ in value while everything else is going down.

However, these very same fund managers and their paper-bound investment psychology are the exclusive reason why Comex gold is dropping in these times when everyone (including fund managers) expects gold to rise. As already stated, though, and as they now finally realize to their own dismay, Comex-gold just isn’t gold – and that causes even further selling.
Two Losing Bets, Compounded

Fund managers’ other bets are losing money fast, now, so they need to raise cash to keep up the overall value of their respective funds, so they can earn their management bonuses and avoid getting booted for lack of relative performance. Guess what they cash in on? The very same Comex paper-gold they mistakenly bought as a ‘hedge’, of course.

Meanwhile, real investors in real gold are enjoying their shopping spree – except that the spree turned into a treasure hunt as the shelves and display cases of gold dealers look more and more like the supermarket shelves in the old Soviet Union – bare.

This is the only ‘bare-market’ in real gold the world will see for a long, long time to come.

With this split, this disconnect, between Comex illusion and gold reality, one thing or the other will have to give, and it won’t be physical gold that gives.

The system built up around the reputation of Comex-gold as being a price-setting mechanism for real gold plays right into the hands of the financial establishment. The establishment depends for its (now increasingly meager) existence on the illusion that gold “isn’t living up to its promise” as a real inflation and disaster hedge. The implication, of course, is that investors might as well stay in the computer blip and paper world.

As the Comex gold price illusion drops, many retail investors are still persuaded to keep their money circulating in the paper world, and that ultimately feeds the system. Of course, by now that ‘feeding’ mechanism looks more like life-support, but try and unhook someone who is on life-support. The results are dramatic, inevitable, immediate – and final.

Yet, even on life-support, the system is deteriorating at a catastrophic pace. It would be hilarious to watch if it wasn’t for the fact that we are all depending on this phony system for our real-life support. Without credit freely circulating through the commercial paper universe, for example, grocery stores won’t have food on their shelves, there won’t be gas a the gas station, and your bank will be shut. Cash doesn’t transfer very well without the bank settlement process.

That’s the problem.

Read Full Article Here

 

COMEX Gold Drops $681 on October 24, 2008