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Stock Market Crash to Hit by Christmas 2011
Paul B. Farrell
MarketWatch
February 22, 2011
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Politicians lie. Bankers lie. Yes, they’re liars. But they’re not bad, it’s in their genes, inherited. Their brains are wired that way, warn scientists. Like addicts, they can’t help themselves. They want to sell stuff, get rich.
We want to believe they’re telling us the truth. Silly, huh? Both trapped in this eternal “dance of death” controlled by programs hidden deep in our brains, telling us what to do, telling us to ignore facts to the contrary — till it’s too late, till a new crisis crushes all of us.
 A trader watches his screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, February 23, 2011. U.S. stocks dropped for a second straight session on Wednesday as Libya’s violence sent oil prices up briefly to $100 a barrel and tech shares sank, adding credence to calls for a market correction |
Psychology offers us a powerful lesson: Our collective brain is destined to trigger a crash before Christmas 2011. Why? We’re gullible, keep searching for a truth-teller in a world of liars. And they’re so clever, we let them manipulate us into acting against our best interests.
In fact, behavioral science tells us that bankers and politicians are lying to us 93% of the time. It’s 13 times more likely Wall Street is telling you a lie than the truth. That’s why they win. Why we lose. Because our brains are preprogrammed to cooperate in their con game. Yes, we believe most of their lies.
One of America’s leading behavioral finance gurus, University of Chicago Prof. Richard Thaler, explains: “Think of the human brain as a personal computer with a very slow processor and a memory system that is small and unreliable.” Thaler even admits: “The PC I carry between my ears has more disk failures than I care to think about.” Easy to manipulate.
Eternal love story: Your brain’s in love with Wall Street’s brain
Thaler’s a quant, speaks mostly in cryptic algorithmics. So if you really want to know how Wall Street’s con game works on you, Barry Ritholtz, the financial genius behind “Bailout Nation,” recently summarized it in the Washington Post: “Humans make all the same mistakes, over and over again. It’s how we are wired, the net result of evolution. That flight-or-fight response might have helped your ancestors deal with hungry saber-toothed tigers and territorial Cro Magnons, but it drives investors to make costly emotional decisions.”
Humans have something “akin to brain damage,” says Ritholtz. “To neurophysiologists, who research cognitive functions, the emotionally driven appear to suffer from cognitive deficits that mimic certain types of brain injuries. … Anyone with an intense emotional interest in a subject loses the ability to observe it objectively: You selectively perceive events. You ignore data and facts that disagree with your main philosophy. Even your memory works to fool you, as you selectively retain what you believe in, and subtly mask any memories that might conflict.”
Worse, there’s no cure.
Your brain needs to believe lies; Wall Street loves telling lies
Examples: USA Today headline: “Average Bull is 3.8 years: We’re not at 2 yet.” More upside. Wall Street loves it. The Wall Street Journal: “Stock recovery in high gear … S&P500 now speeding toward its next landmark,” double its March 2009 bottom.
Other lies: Inflation and rate rises won’t push China and America over the edge into a new bear recession. That one’s real popular in Wall Street’s echo chamber. Wall Street also cheers every time cable pundits and journalists repeat their favorite statistic: That stocks rally in the third year of a presidency, often more than 20%. Yes, Wall Street loves those 93% lies.
Biggest lie? Wharton’s perennial bull, Jeremy Siegel, of “Stocks for the Long Run” fame, recently told a TD Ameritrade Institutional Conference, “There’s nothing but upside to come …the next several years are going to be good for stocks.”
Yes, one of Wall Street’s favorite co-conspirators is hypnotizing thousands of our best money managers and advisers into believing the lie that this bull market will roar indefinitely. Worse, they’ll use that message to sell naive investors on buying whatever junk Wall Street is selling.
Get the picture? A little conspiracy begins in your head, a conspiracy between your gullible brain and Wall Street’s con men selling hype, hoopla and happy-talk. Listen and you’ll lose.
Warning: This little conspiracy is a retirement killer. Remember: It’s odds-on you’re being lied to. So for a few moments, listen to some highly respected contrarians. They’re short-selling this conspiracy, betting that 2011 will hit headwinds before Christmas, turn a cyclical bull rally into a cyclical bear market.
Our brains never learned 2008’s lessons, will fail again in 2011
Remember, we can’t help it. Our brains are defective, biased, manipulated by unseen forces 93% of the time. So blame all the lies, lying and liars on our brain wiring. A perfect excuse. Sure, political dogma and insatiable greed factor into our bizarre mental equations. But your brain is as susceptible to the “great con” as Ben Bernanke, Henry Paulson, Bernie Madoff.
Go back a few years: The subprime credit meltdown was widely predicted years in advance. For example, back in 2007, the IMF’s Chief Economist, Raghuram Rajan, “delivered a stark warning to the world’s top bankers: Financial markets were headed for doom. They laughed it off,” said the Toronto Star. Both Alan Greenspan and Larry Summers were there.
In April 2007, Jeremy Grantham, whose firm manages $107 billion, also warned investors: “The First Truly Global Bubble: From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art; from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure, and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it’s bubble time. … Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another. … Bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets … no similar global event has occurred before.”
We knew a crash was coming, Wall Street laughed.
Call it denial, or lying, or just a brain defect, late that summer as the meltdown spread like wildfire, shutting down the economy, our manipulative Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, a former Goldman Sachs CEO, told Fortune “this is far and away the strongest global economy I’ve seen in my business lifetime.” And Fed boss Bernanke was telling us the subprime crisis was “contained.” Alan Greenspan agreed. He was on tour, making millions hustling his new book of excuses, delusions and lies, “The Age of Turbulence.”
Today, just three years later, the market’s just a shade above its 2000 peak. Adjusted for inflation, Wall Street stocks have lost roughly 20% of your retirement money the past decade. Get it? Wall Street’s a big loser the past decade. And they’ll lose another 20% by 2020. Why? Because 93% of what comes from Wall Street is suspect, can’t be trusted.
Warning: Cyclical bull ends in 2011, new cyclical bear roars back
At the beginning of 2011 USA Today reported a contrarian forecast. Ned Davis Research says the S&P 500 will make a run at the 2007 high of 1,565, but hit a “midyear peak.” Then it will crash as interest rates rise. Davis concludes: “The midyear peak could mark the end of the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 and the start of a new cyclical bear market.”
Warning, even though your brain doesn’t want to hear it, there is a high probability a new cyclical bear market will begin this summer … and overshadow the 2012 elections.
The Journal’s also warning: “Inflation jitters spread through emerging markets, prompting China’s central bank to raise interest rate for the third time in four months amid worries that a drought threatening the country’s wheat crop will put further pressure on global food prices.”
Wake up America: With commodity prices rising rapidly, all the bizarre rationalizations Wall Street uses to keep Bernanke’s interest rates low are rapidly vaporizing. Yes, Ned Davis’ prediction of a bear will soon be a painful reality.
S&P 500 inflated, worth just 910, get out before it tops 1,500
Grantham also sees inflation and rising interest rates killing the lies, popping the bubble and ending the rally: “As a simple rule, the market will tend to rise as long as short rates are kept low. This seems likely to be the case for eight more months and, therefore, we have to be prepared for the market to rise and to have a risky bias.”
With $107 billion at stake Grantham better be concerned. He predicted the 2008 meltdown, now sees a repeat dead ahead: “Be prepared for a strong market and continued outperformance of everything risky, but be aware that you are living on borrowed time as a bull.”
Yes, the bubble will pop this year says Grantham: “If the S&P rises to 1,500, it would officially be the latest in the series of true bubbles. All of the famous bubbles broke, but only after short rates had started to rise.”
So keep a close watch on those two tipping points in your planning, interest rates breaking to the upside and the S&P closing near 1,500. When inflation pushes interest rates up they’ll choke off this bull market. If you’re active, better stop chasing higher returns, especially emerging markets.
Bottom line: In what sounds like a direct shot at super-bull Jeremy Siegel, Grantham says that GMO’s research warns that “the market is worth about 910 on the S&P 500, substantially less than current levels” just above 1,300.
Then Grantham throws his fast ball right down the middle: “The speed with which you should pull back from the market as it advances into dangerously overpriced territory this year is more of an art than a science, but by October 1 you should probably be thinking much more conservatively.”
Translation: Get the heck out of Wall Street’s stock market casino soon, maybe as early as July 4th, and definitely get out by Christmas, because soon all the lies, lying and liars will stop working.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: agriculture, bread line, collapse of america, deindustrialization, Economic Collapse, economic crisis, economic depression, Economy, egypt, end of america, end the fed, Federal Reserve, food crisis, food market, food prices, food shortage, Great Depression, hyperinflation, Inflation, islamic world, riots, Stock Market, US Economy
Food Crisis Will Soon Hit The U.S.
Phoenix Capital Research
February 20, 2011
Forget stocks, the real crisis is coming… and it’s coming fast.
Indeed, it first hit in 2008 though it was almost entirely off the radar of the American public. While all eyes were glued to the carnage in the stock market and brokerage account balances, a far more serious crisis began to unfold rocking 30 countries around the globe.
I’m talking about food shortages.
Aside from a few rice shortages that were induced by export restrictions in Asia, food received little or no coverage from the financial media in 2008. Yet, food shortages started riots in over 30 countries worldwide. In Egypt people were actually stabbing each other while standing in line for bread.
We’re now seeing the second round of this disaster occurring in Egypt and other Arab countries today. Thanks to the Fed’s funny money policies, food prices have hit records. And even the Fed’s phony measures show that vegetable prices are up 13%!
The developed world, most notably the US, has been relatively immune to these developments… so far. But for much of the developing world, in which food and basic expenses consumer 50% of incomes, any rise in food prices can have catastrophic consequences.
And that’s not to say that food shortages can’t hit the developed world either.
According to Mark McLoran of Agro-Terra, the Earth’s population is currently growing by 70-80 million people per year. Between 2000 and 2012, the earth’s population will jump from six billion to seven billion. We’re expected to add another billion people by 2024. So demanding for food is growing… and it’s growing fast.
However, supply is falling. Up until the 1960s, mankind dealt with increased food demand by increasing farmland. However, starting in the ‘60s we began trying to meet demand by increasing yield via fertilizers, irrigation, and better seed. It worked for a while (McLoran notes that between 1975 and 1986 yields for wheat and rice rose 32% and 51% respectively).
However, in the last two decades, these techniques have stopped producing increased yields due to their deleterious effects: you can’t spray fertilizer and irrigate fields ad infinitum without damaging the land, which reduces yields. McLoran points out that from 1970 to 1990, global average aggregate yield grew by 2.2% a year. It has since declined to only 1.1% a year. And it’s expected to fall even further this decade.
Thus, since the ‘60s we’ve added roughly three billion people to the planet. But we’ve actually seen a decrease in food output. Indeed, worldwide arable land per person has essentially halved from 0.42 hectares per person in 1961 to 0.23 hectares per person in 2002.
It’s also worth noting that diets have changed dramatically in the last 30 years.
For example, in 1985 the average Chinese consumer ate 44 pounds of meat per year. Today, it’s more than doubled to 110 pounds. That in of itself is impressive, but when you consider that it takes 17 pounds of grain to generate one pound of beef, you begin to see how grain demand can rise exponentially to population growth with even modest changes to diet.
Make no mistake, agriculture is at the beginning of a major multi-year bull market. We’ve got rapidly growing demand, reduced production, and decade low inventories.
This is an absolute recipe for disaster.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: bailout, big banks, borse, capitalism, CME, collapse of america, DEBT, Dictatorship, duetche borse, Economic Collapse, economic crisis, economic depression, Economy, elite, Empire, end of america, fascism, forclosure, germany, Globalism, globalists, Great Depression, housing bubble, housing market, hyperinflation, Inflation, internationalists, new world order, New York, new york stock exchange, NWO, NYSE, overegulation, proctor and gamble, regulations, ruling class internationalist, Stock Market, unemployment, US Economy, wall street, world government
New York Stock Exchange Sold To Germany
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: america destroyed, barack obama, budget, Communism, DEBT, Dictatorship, Economic Collapse, economic crisis, Economy, Empire, fascism, government spending, Great Depression, hyperinflation, Inflation, national debt, new world order, NWO, obama, obama deception, socialism, spending, u.s. collapse, US Economy
Obama’s $3.7 TRILLION Dollar Budget: A Complete and Total Joke
Michael Snyder
February 15, 2011
Is Barack Obama trying to play a joke on all of us? The budget that the Obama administration has submitted for fiscal 2012 is so out of touch with reality that it may as well be a budget for “Narnia”, “Fantasy Island”, “Atlantis” or some other mythical land. You can view the hard numbers for Barack Obama’s 2012 budget right here. Obama’s budget assumes that the U.S. will experience economic growth of over 5 percent for most of the coming decade. That is so far-fetched that “optimistic” is not the right word for it. It also assumes that U.S. government income (primarily made up of taxes on all of us) will more than double over the next ten years. For 2011, the budget projects that the U.S. government will take in a total of 2.1 trillion dollars, and for 2021 the budget projects that the U.S. government will take in a total of 4.9 trillion dollars. For the Obama administration to assume that the federal government will be able to drain an extra 2.8 trillion dollars per year out of the American people by the year 2021 is ridicul0us beyond belief. In his new budget Barack Obama does propose some very, very modest spending cuts that he knows have no chance of getting through Congress. Barack Obama’s budget for 2012 also does not even attempt to make any cuts to entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. In essence, you can sum up Barack Obama’s budget proposal for 2012 by saying that it is a complete and total joke. This budget is so delusional and so out of touch with reality that it is hard to imagine anyone taking it seriously.
Oh, but Obama is really trying to sell it hard. When Obama unveiled this new $3.7 trillion budget for 2012 at a middle school in Baltimore, he insisted that his plan will make it “so that every American is equipped to compete with any worker anywhere in the world.”
Well, that is a nice sound bite, but as I have written about previously, unless Barack Obama suddenly finds a way to stop multinational corporations from paying slave labor wages to their workers on the other side of the globe the job losses in America are going to continue.
But that is a topic for another day. Getting back to the 2012 budget, Obama is proposing to cut more than a trillion dollars from federal budget deficits over the next ten years.
That sounds really good until you figure out that means that the cuts only amount to about $100 billion a year. Considering the fact that Obama’s budget is projecting that we will have a $1.6 trillion budget deficit this year alone, that really is not a whole heck of a lot to be cutting.
The truth is that Barack Obama should be proposing spending cuts that are at least ten times as large if he was actually serious about addressing our budget woes.
But at least Obama is not proposing an increase in spending.
Oh wait, he actually is.
In fact, under Obama’s budget, U.S. government spending will soar from 3.8 trillion dollars this year to 5.6 trillion dollars in 2021.
But the mainstream media is solely focusing on the budget cuts that Obama is proposing.
Apparently they are trying to cast him as some sort of “fiscal conservative”.
Try not to laugh.
But the modest cuts that Obama is proposing are at least some place to start.
Under Obama’s budget, approximately half of all government agencies will have their funding decreased from 2010 levels.
In fact, approximately 33 billion dollars would be saved by scaling back or shutting down 200 federal programs.
Of course Obama’s fellow Democrats in Congress will never go along with many of these cuts, but at least it is something.
However, this is where most in the mainstream media stop their analysis.
They don’t take a closer look at the numbers in Obama’s budget.
They don’t question the wacky economic growth assumptions.
They don’t question the bizarre government income projections.
But even with the Obama administration’s crooked numbers, the federal deficit still never drops below 600 billion dollars over the next decade and a total of 7.2 trillion dollars is still added to the national debt over the next decade.
If economic growth ends up being much lower, or if the U.S. government is not able to get twice as much money out of the American people by the end of the decade then the projections would look much, much different.
So where does the Obama administration assume all of that extra money for the government is going to come from?
Oh, from raising taxes of course.
The Obama budget assumes that there will be significant tax increases starting in the year 2013.
A recent article on CNBC summarized some of the tax increases that the Obama budget calls for….
- The plan unveiled Monday includes tax increases for oil, gas and coal producers, investment managers and U.S.-based multinational corporations. The plan would allow Bush-era tax cuts to expire at the end of 2012 for individuals making more than $200,000 and married couples making more than $250,000.
Wealthy taxpayers would have their itemized deductions limited, including deductions for mortgage interest, charitable contributions and state and local taxes.
There are many liberals (such as my friend Gary) that would love to see these tax increases go into effect, but Obama knows that there is no chance that they will ever see the light of day unless the Democrats retake the House of Representatives.
But most of Obama’s budget for 2012 is based on things that simply never even have a chance of happening.
The reality is that Obama’s budget for 2012 is a great work of fiction.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government continues to accumulate staggering amounts of debt.
In fact, Obama’s budget admits that we will witness the biggest one year debt increase in history this year.
In 2011, the gross federal debt with surpass 15 trillion dollars. In fact, it is being projected by some analysts that this will be the year when the debt finally becomes larger than the size of the entire U.S. economy.
Ouch.
But Obama insists that he is taking this debt problem very seriously.
Obama insists that he is committed to making “deep” cuts.
In fact, as he announced this new budget Obama stated that these budget cuts hit “many programs whose mission I care deeply about, but meeting our fiscal targets while investing in our future demands no less.”
Do any of you actually believe him?
Not that the Obama administration is in an easy position. The truth is that the U.S. government (both Republicans and Democrats) have been horribly irresponsible with our money for decades.
The 14 trillion dollar national debt problem that we have now did not develop overnight.
Neither will it be solved overnight.
But Obama is not even trying to address the tough issues such as Social Security and Medicare.
The truth is that the federal debt problem cannot be solved without addressing our out of control entitlement programs.
So why didn’t Obama address them in his budget?
Well, the reality is that Obama is not stupid. Social Security and Medicare are political sacred cows. Obama is not going to do anything at this point that would cost him millions of votes in 2012.
So Barack Obama ignored most of the $4 trillion in budget cuts recommended by the White House-appointed deficit commission.
It kind of makes you wonder why Obama ever appointed a “deficit commission” in the first place.
One area that Obama does attempt to cut in his new budget is military spending. Obama’s budget for 2012 sets military spending at 5 percent below what the Pentagon requested for 2011.
In fact, Obama’s defense budget would slash military spending by $78 billion over the next five years.
His budget also assumes that we are not going to get involved in any more wars, which is not necessarily a safe assumption.
So will these military spending cuts actually get through Congress?
Not likely.
The Republicans control the House of Representatives, and they are not likely to take too kindly to large cuts to the defense budget.
In fact, the truth is that not too many of Barack Obama’s spending cuts are likely to survive in Congress.
As a recent article on CNN explained, Barack Obama’s budget plan must navigate a vast array of congressional committees in the coming months and by the time it emerges it is likely to be radically changed from its current form….
- Before it gets back to Obama’s desk for a signature, the spending blueprint will go through no less than 40 congressional committees, 24 subcommittees, countless hearings and a number of floor votes in the House and Senate.
As our Congress critters have demonstrated over and over and over, they love to spend our money on some of the most wasteful things imaginable.
For example, a total of $3 million has already been granted to researchers at the University of California at Irvine so that they can play video games such as World of Warcraft.
Something seems to happen to people who get elected to Congress. Almost all of them seem to develop an addiction to spending our hard-earned money.
Let us hope that something changes in that regard, because right now government debt is completely and totally out of control.
In fact, the U.S. national debt is currently increasing by approximately 4 billion dollars every single day.
In the end, if something is not done about all this debt it will destroy the entire U.S. financial system.
But our politicians just keep putting it off and putting it off.
Eventually we will reap what we have sown. Debt is a very cruel master, and nobody can run from it forever – not even the U.S. government.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: canada, Dictatorship, Economic Collapse, economic crisis, Economy, Empire, Felicia Wang, nanny state, Oppression, Police State, toronto, US Economy
Homeowner Ordered to Stop Parking In Her Own Driveway
Toronto Star
November 17, 2010
An East York woman woke up to a yellow notice on her windshield warning that her car could be fined or towed for being illegally parked in her own driveway.
The city notice states, “Park in front of garage door only.”
Have you received a notice about parking in your driveway? Contact us
Felicia Wang has lived at the same house on Parkview Hill Cres. for all her 25 years. She has always parked her silver Honda sedan next to her parents’ vehicle on the family’s double driveway, which extends past the single garage.
The notice that she was in violation of a bylaw came as a surprise.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: black eyed peas, christina aguilera, christina aguilera national anthem, christina aguilera super bowl, DEBT, economic crisis, economic depression, Economy, Great Depression, national anthem, national debt, packers, super bowl, superbowl, taxpayers, US Economy
Super Bowl flyover costs taxpayers $450,000
khou.com
February 8, 2011
ARLINGTON, Texas — The ritual at a sporting event is both heart-rending and familiar: The performance of the national anthem, followed by a thunderous flyover by military aircraft.
At this year’s Super Bowl, five Navy F-18s are traveling all the way from Virginia Beach, Virginia for the ceremony at Cowboys Stadium in Arlington. The domed arena will be closed. The spectators inside will not see it. The five-second shot will be shown on TV.
The U.S. Navy says the cost to bring the formation of four planes, plus a backup, to North Texas is $109,000 in fuel. According to Department of Defense tables, the entire cost will be more than $450,000, based on the operational cost of the F-18 aircraft and the number of hours the pilots will fly.
The same kind of F-18 fighter operates out of the Joint Reserve Base in Fort Worth, less than 20 miles from the stadium.
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: afghanistan, cost of war, DEBT, Dictatorship, Economic Collapse, economic crisis, economic depression, Economy, Empire, Great Depression, iraq, nation building, occupation, spending, taxpayers, US Economy, war funding, War On Terror, war spending
Total Cost Of Wars Exceeds $2.5 Trillion – No Worries! US Media ‘Fluff’ Numbing Nation, Robbing Next Generation
The Daily Bail
February 8, 2011
Thus far, the war in Iraq has cost over $740,000,000,000 — but the cumulative cost could be between two and three trillion dollars. The war has caused the death of over 4,400 American troops, and left more than 31,000 wounded.
Video – Americans consider the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan among the less important problems facing their country – according to a recent opinion poll. That’s despite thousands of U.S. soldiers killed in action and more than one trillion dollars spent. But as RT’s Lauren Lyster reports it may be the mainstream media that decides what really matters for the public…
What does a Trillion dollars look like?
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: china, economic crisis, economic depression, food crisis, food market, food shortage, global economy, health and environment, Max Keiser, plastic food, plastic rice, toxic food, toxicity
China caught making plastic rice
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 2012 election, america collapse, bernanke, big banks, china, currency manipulation, depression, devaluation, donald trump, Economic Collapse, economic crisis, economic depression, Economy, eguptian revolution, egypt, egypt revolution, end the fed, Federal Reserve, food market, food shortage, gas prices, Great Depression, hyperinflation, income tax, Inflation, job market, manipulation, market manipulation, mexico, middle east, obama, obama deception, offshoring, oil, oil price, OPEC, petrol, Ron Paul, Stock Market, trump, unemployment, US Economy
Donald Trump for President in 2012
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: 2008 election, 2010 election, anti-war, big government, california, campaign for liberty, Congress, DEBT, depression, devaluation, Dollar, dollar dump, economic crisis, economic depression, end the fed, Federal Reserve, government regulation, Great Depression, Greenback, hyperinflation, Inflation, iraq, john dennis, libertarian, liberty, middle class, nation building, new taxes, occupation, rally, republic, Ron Paul, Ron Paul Rally, san francisco, speech, tax, taxpayers, truth movement, us constitution, US Economy, war on drugs, War On Terror, Washington D.C.
Ron Paul San Francisco Speech – (9/4/2010)
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College Students are Debt Slaves and Jobless
Filed under: Uncategorized | Tags: consumer, david rosenberg, depression, devaluation, Dollar, dollar bubble, dollar drop, dollar dump, Economic Collapse, economic crisis, economic depression, economic disaster, economic forecast, Economy, Federal Reserve, Great Depression, Greenback, Howard Davidowitz, hyperinflation, Inflation, retail, Stock Market, u.s. consumer, u.s. economy, u.s. retail, US Economy
U.S. ‘Consumer is TOTALLY Wrecked’: Davidowitz
U.S. Economy Caught in Depression, Not Recession: Rosenberg
CNBC
August 24, 2010
Positive gross domestic product readings and other mildly hopeful signs are masking an ugly truth: The US economy is in a 1930s-style Depression, Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg said Tuesday.
Writing in his daily briefing to investors, Rosenberg said the Great Depression also had its high points, with a series of positive GDP reports and sharp stock market gains.
But then as now, those signs of recovery were unsustainable and only provided a false sense of stability, said Rosenberg.
Rosenberg calls current economic conditions “a depression, and not just some garden-variety recession,” and notes that any good news both during the initial 1929-33 recession and the one that began in 2008 triggered “euphoric response.”
“Such is human nature and nobody can be blamed for trying to be optimistic; however, in the money management business, we have a fiduciary responsibility to be as realistic as possible about the outlook for the economy and the market at all times,” he said.
The 1929-33 recession saw six quarterly bounces in GDP with an average gain of 8 percent, sending the stock market to a 50 percent rally in early 1930 as investors thought the worst had passed.
“False premise,” Rosenberg said. “And guess what? We may well be reliving history here. If you’re keeping score, we have recorded four quarterly advances in real GDP, and the average is only 3%.”
noworldsystem.com 