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Venezuela Introduces New Currency

January 2, 2008, 5:24 pm
Filed under: central bank, Hugo Chavez, Inflation, Oil, OPEC, petrodollar, petroeuro, Petrol, Simon Bolivar, single currency

Venezuela Introduces New Currency

AP
January 1, 2008

Venezuela launched a new currency with the new year, lopping off three zeros from denominations in a bid to simplify finances and boost confidence in a money that has been losing value due to high inflation.

President Hugo Chavez’s government says the new currency — dubbed the “strong bolivar” — will make daily transactions easier and cure some accounting headaches. Officials also say it is part of a broader effort to contain rising prices and strengthen the economy.

“We’re ending a historical cycle of … instability in prices,” Finance Minister Rodrigo Cabezas said Monday, adding that the change aims to “recover a bolivar that has significant buying capacity.”

Prices have risen as Chavez has pumped increased amounts of the country’s oil income into social programs, reinforcing his support among the poor and helping to drive 8.4 percent economic growth in 2007.

The Central Bank is promoting the new monetary unit with an ad campaign and the slogan: “A strong economy, a strong bolivar, a strong country.” Officials, however, have yet to clearly spell out their anti-inflationary measures.

Some Venezuelan critics, meanwhile, have dubbed the new currency the “weak bolivar,” noting its predecessor, the bolivar, has seen its purchasing power suffer in an economy where inflation ran roughly 20 percent in 2007 — the highest in Latin America.

Venezuelan economist and pollster Luis Vicente Leon said that while the new currency may provide “the perception of stability” for some, it is largely a “cosmetic change.”

Government officials say the change is overdue to bring Venezuelan denominations into line with those of other countries in the region. Instead of denominations in the thousands, the largest new Venezuelan note will be 100 strong bolivars.

“It was necessary to leave behind the consequences of a history of high inflation,” Central Bank president Gaston Parra said in a televised year-end speech. He said officials aim “to reinforce confidence in the monetary symbol.”

The new money was distributed to banks and automated teller machines nationwide ahead of Tuesday’s launch and will be phased in during the next six months. Venezuelans will be able to use both old and new bolivars during the transition.

Venezuela has had a fixed exchange rate since February 2003, when Chavez imposed currency and price controls. The government has said it is not considering a devaluation any time soon.

But while the strong bolivar’s official exchange rate will be fixed as 2.15 to $1, the black market rate has hovered around the equivalent of 5.60 to $1 recently.

Venezuela’s currency has long been named after independence hero Simon Bolivar, who is pictured on the new 100 strong bolivar bill.

The new money is the latest in a series of changes to national symbols during Chavez’s presidency. He also redesigned the national seal and flag, and renamed the country the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.

With the new currency, the government is also resurrecting a 12.5-cent coin, called the “locha,” which existed during Chavez’s childhood but has not been used since the 1970s.

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Wall Street Tumbles After Rate Cut

December 12, 2007, 10:38 am
Filed under: Bank of America, bernanke, central bank, credit card, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Dow, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, Europe, Federal Reserve, food prices, foreclosure, gold, Great Depression, Greenback, housing market, Inflation, interest rate cuts, london, petroeuro, rate cut, rate freeze, Stock Market, subprime, subprime lending, UBS, United Kingdom, US Economy, Wall Street, washington mutual, wells fargo

Wall Street Tumbles After Rate Cut

AP
December 11, 2007

WASHINGTON (AP) – The Federal Reserve dropped its most important interest rate to a nearly two-year low on Tuesday and left the door open to additional cuts to prevent a housing and credit meltdown from pushing the economy into a recession.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and all but one of his colleagues agreed to trim the federal funds rate by one-quarter percentage point to 4.25 percent.

The rate reduction, the third this year, was needed to energize national economic growth, Fed officials said. The deepening housing slump is affecting the behavior of consumers and businesses alike, the Fed said.

“Economic growth is slowing, reflecting the intensification of the housing correction and some softening in business and consumer spending. Moreover, strains in financial markets have increased in recent weeks,” the Fed said in a statement explaining its decision to cut rates again. The three rate cuts ordered thus far “should help promote moderate growth over time,” the Fed added.

On Wall Street, stocks tumbled, reflecting disappointment among some investors who were hoping for a larger rate cut. The Dow Jones industrial plunged more than 200 points.

The funds rate affects many other interest rates charged to individuals and businesses and is the Fed’s most potent tool for influencing economic activity.

In response, commercial banks, including Wachovia and Wells Fargo, lowered their prime lending rate by a corresponding amount, to 7.25 percent. The prime rate applies to certain credit cards, home equity lines of credit and other loans.

The fact that the Fed’s key rate was lowered again marked an about- face for the central bank. At its previous meeting in October, Fed officials hinted that their two rate cuts probably would be sufficient to help the economy survive the housing and credit stresses. Since then, however, financial conditions have deteriorated, prompting Bernanke to signal before Tuesday’s meeting that another rate cut may be needed after all as an insurance policy against undue economic weakness.

As another bolstering move, the Fed on Tuesday also lowered its lending rates to banks by one-quarter percentage point. That was the fourth cut to the discount rate since mid-August.

“Recent developments, including the deterioration in financial market conditions, have increased the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for economic growth and inflation,” the Fed said in its statement.

Banks, financial companies and other investors who made loans to people with spotty credit or put money into securities backed by those subprime mortgages have lost billions of dollars. Investors in the U.S. and abroad have grown more wary of buying new debt, thereby aggravating the credit crunch.

Harder-to-get credit has thwarted would-be home buyers, intensifying the housing collapse. Foreclosures have soared to record highs. The number of unsold homes have piled up. Problems are expected to persist well into next year.

The 9-1 decision for a quarter-point reduction to the funds rate was opposed by Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. He preferred a bolder, half-percentage point cut.

“Fed’s language clearly reflects a heightened degree of concern about the economic outlook,” said Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist at LaSalle Bank. “They left open the possibility of additional rate reductions,” he added. If the economy were to take a turn for the worse, another rate cut could come before the Fed’s next scheduled meeting on Jan. 29-30, Tannbenbaum said.

The situation poses the biggest challenge yet to Bernanke, who took over the Fed in February 2006. Some analysts have questioned whether he waited too long to cut the Fed’s key rate and whether he has acted aggressively enough to the nation’s economic woes.

In September, the central bank dropped the funds rate for the first time in four years. Then it was a half-point drop; on Oct. 31 came a quarter-point cut.

The rationale behind the lower rates is that they will induce consumers and businesses to boost spending, invigorating economic activity. With Tuesday’s reductions, both the funds rate and the prime rate are now at their lowest levels in nearly two years.

From July through September, the economy logged its best growth in four years. But it is expected to slow to a pace of just 1.5 percent or less over the final three months of the year as the housing collapse and credit crunch chill consumers, sapping overall economic growth. The odds of a recession have grown.

With growth cooling, the unemployment rate, now at a relatively low 4.7 percent, is expected to rise. Analysts expect the jobless rate to climb to 5 percent by early next year.

High oil prices could complicate the Fed’s job of trying to keep the economy expanding and inflation low.

Oil prices, which had neared $100 a barrel, have moderated. But they are still high. High energy prices are a double-edged sword. They can slow economic activity and spread inflation if they cause the prices of lots of other goods and services to rise.

“Elevated energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put upward pressure on inflation,” the Fed said. “Inflation risks remain,” the Fed said, adding that it “will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.” Some economists believed the Fed’s decision to go with a moderate quarter-point cut was a nod to those inflation concerns.

Dropping dollar cramps the style of Americans abroad

LA Times
December 9, 2007

LONDON – Karla Keating and her husband had retirement on their minds in May when they got what they considered an offer too good to refuse: a three-year stint in London.

Coming from North Carolina, they knew it was going to be a bit of a financial leap. But the major US bank where her husband is an executive lured him with a 33 percent increase in pay. Within weeks, they had crossed the ocean and found a nice flat near Marylebone for 1,820 pounds – about $3,750.

“The estate agent told me the price, and I said OK, I guess that’s kind of comparable to prices around Europe. And he said, ‘That’s the price per week,’ ” Keating recalls. Since then, it’s been all downhill.

The iPod Nanos for the children cost 99 pounds apiece (about $204), compared with $149 in the United States. Keating’s six-Diet Coke-a-day habit got shaved quickly to one, at $2 a can. They sit at the end of the day on their small balcony overlooking Great Portland Street, and her husband smiles (sort of) and says, “Here’s your $12 glass of wine.”

“When I got here I was like a deer in headlights. I was just, ‘Oh my God’ about everything,” Keating said. “We figured out that with the increasingly weakening dollar, in reality he is making less than he was making 20 years ago.”

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CFR: Considering the PetroEuro

December 9, 2007, 9:43 am
Filed under: CFR, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, Euro, gas prices, Great Depression, gulf, Iran, monetary union, Oil, OPEC, petrodollar, petroeuro, qatar, Saudi Arabia, single currency, UAE, US Economy, Venezuela

CFR: Considering the PetroEuro

CFR
December 6, 2007

Easily missed amid the rising outcry over oil prices is the fact that they have only been skyrocketing in dollar terms. Priced in euros—or yen, or pounds sterling—the cost of a barrel of oil has risen much less over the past decade. At recent meetings of OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, ministers disputed whether oil should be sold in euros instead of dollars (WashPost), in light of the dollar’s recent decline. Officials from Venezuela, Iran, and Algeria called for a switch. But Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, both of which hold huge dollar reserves, urged caution, and the bloc concluded the meetings saying it would further study (FT) the impact of the falling dollar on its member states.

If oil were priced in euros, what would the effect be? On the surface, possibly not much, experts say. “Whether they’re selling in dollars or euros, they can make their currency conversions,” says Peter J. Robertson, vice chairman of Chevron Corporation, in an interview with CFR.org. The fact that major currencies are easily exchanged means that oil producers don’t sustain any immediate monetary loss by accepting payment in one currency or another. Yet a currency switch could bring a slew of more subtle changes. First, there is the psychological impact. Robertson says a shift would send a clear signal that oil producers “didn’t have as much confidence in the future of the United States”—a sentiment that could deeply undermine investor confidence.

This, in turn, could further hamper the strength of the dollar. As Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister says “the mere mention that the OPEC countries are studying the issue of the dollar is itself going to have an impact,” adding that a dollar collapse could take a severe toll on OPEC (UK Telegraph) economies. Indeed, several of the main oil-exporting nations would be among the most vulnerable parties, globally, should the dollar’s value decline. Having accepted dollars in payment for years, countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have compiled massive dollar reserves (Economist), rivaling those held by China. They have a compelling interest in keeping those dollar piles as valuable as possible. Other countries, including Iran, have already diversified away (Gulf News) from the dollar, which explains the sharp differences of opinion within OPEC.

Beyond its effect on the dollar, OPEC shifting to the euro could also bring substantial benefits to European countries and companies by reducing currency risk (Guardian) currently built into their trade with oil states. More broadly, an OPEC shift to the euro could bring an overall reduction in global demand for the dollar, taking away one of the main ways in which the United States has financed large budget and trade deficits, as CFR’s Brad W. Setser notes in a recent interview.

The pressing question, then, is whether OPEC will switch. Here, expert opinion is mixed. Pressure from Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s heavyweight, seems likely to keep any immediate switch at bay. Two Lehman Brothers economists write on the website of the Financial Times that Riyadh’s stockpile of petrodollars binds its prospects to the health of the currency. Still, it seems all but certain that more oil states will follow Iran’s lead in diversifying their holdings away from the dollar. Riyadh has substantial support (Bloomberg) in defending the dollar, but Nigeria and Angola, two of Africa’s major oil exporters, are making new efforts to diversify their currency reserves.

Gulf States to Discuss Single Currency Plan by 2010
http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-30787820071202

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