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Ron Paul’s 10% In Iowa Shocks Establishment Media
Even Fox News’ own talking heads think decision to exclude from presidential forum should be reversed

Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet
January 4, 2008

Ron Paul’s double digit support in Iowa has shocked establishment media figures who have long derided the Congressman as an insignificant candidate with just 2 or 3 per cent of the vote. Even Fox News’ own talking heads now agree that Paul should not be excluded from the upcoming presidential forum as campaign momentum builds.

Dr. Paul blew “national frontrunner” Rudy Giuliani out of the water, who got just 4% of the vote, and is handily placed behind McCain and Thompson heading into New Hampshire.

The Congressman’s strong showing has led to new calls for Fox News to reverse the decision to exclude him from the January 6th presidential forum, not from Ron Paul supporters but from Fox News’ own flagship hosts.

“Should Fox News reconsider?” asked Smith, to which Susteren responded, “I’m not sure why he’s out of it (the forum).”

“Here you have a candidate that 10 per cent of the people caucused in his party really want him and it’s not like he’s an insignificant player,” she added.

“He didn’t just drop in yesterday to the process, he has been running for president for a long time, and certainly many of the issues he’s raised are rather provocative and certainly stimulate the debate, that’s not a bad thing – and why not pull up another chair?” Susteren concluded.

Watch it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qi_XBgzHxQs

CNN’s Wolf Blitzer and Larry King also noted Paul’s double digit finish during a discussion last night.

“Ron Paul I think is gonna be a factor in New Hampshire on the Republican side much more than he was in Iowa given all the Independents there so let’s not neglect Ron Paul when we’re talking about this,” remarked Blitzer.

Watch it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5UFKSPw550

Analyzing the Ron Paul Numbers in Iowa
There are a number of reasons to be encouraged by Ron Paul’s showing in Iowa.

Nolan Chart
January 4, 2008

The morning after Ron Paul’s stronger-than-expected 10% showing in Iowa was no surprise to Paul supporters (and probably disappointing to some), but it had to come as a bit of a surprise to most of the pollsters. Over the past week, most pollsters had Paul in the 5-8% range. So 10% pushes the limit on “margin of error” and suggests that Paul supporters have been right all along. His support is underrepresented in the polls.

Paul wasn’t the only candidate the pollsters were wrong about. Rudy Giuliani was consistently polling in mid-teen double-digits up until about a week ago, but he ended up at 4%. He had fallen to the 5-8% range within the past few days, but 4% has to be considered a monumental drop for him. Mike Huckabee’s poll numbers were consistently 5 points lower than what he actually got. The other candidates were pretty much in line with what the pollsters thought they would get.

It’s not a surprise that Huckabee picked up extra points the night of the caucus. People love to vote for the likely “winner,” which is probably where his extra 5% comes from, but the Giuliani and Paul numbers should give pollsters pause to reconsider. Essentially, it looks like Giuliani lost the lion’s share of his support to Paul and Huckabee.

CNN entrance polls are even more interesting when you look at them up close.

For instance (and not surprisingly) when asked to rate their feelings about the Bush administration, Paul supporters represented 54% of those said they were “angry” at Bush out of all “angry” voters. These represented only 5% of the overall totals, which is also not surprising given that most Republican activists are Bush supporters, but it’s very helpful in terms of understanding how much pull Paul could have among the overall electorate who tend to hold our current King George in relatively low esteem.

Paul was also the clear winner among Republican caucus goers who view themselves as being “independent” rather than identifying with the Republican party, with 29% of that group’s support (well ahead of Romney at 19%). Independents accounted for 13% of overall Republican caucus goers.

Paul’s support is stronger among lower-income Americans. He tied for third with John McCain with 14% of people making less than $50,000 a year, and scored a high of 18% (second place) among those making $15,000 to $30,000 annually.

He also finished a strong third among young Iowans. Voters in the 18-29 age range picked Paul 21% of the time, just one tick behind Romney who was in second place.

One thing I couldn’t find was any reference to what the results were among cell phone users. We may have to wait awhile before this information comes out, but it would be very interesting to see how much of Paul’s extra support came from voters who have cell phones but not land lines.

The Stages of Ron Paul
Ron Paul’s showing in Iowa is only a phase in a larger picture.

Nolan Chart
January 4, 2007

The Caucus held in Iowa last night is an important stage of the Ron Paul movement and cannot be discounted. Although the Mainstream media will ignore/discredit his numbers, they really do show positive hope for him. Here are 7 stages of his candidacy.

1- The first stage is when he announced he was running. this was about 9 months ago. He had few followers, (I was in this group) and was not taken seriously at all.

2- The second stage is the “few internet spammers” stage. This is when he was accused of having a few 16 year old kids in their moms basement as his supporters.

3- The Internet phenomenon. Online polls started picking up. The meetup groups started forming. It soon became apparent that he was a force online. This soon converted to the straw poll stage. Of course still not taken seriously.

4- The mass fundraising stage. Guy Fawkes says it all. The Boston Tea party showed the world that there is a real revolution going on… Still not taken seriously by MSM.

5- This is the stage we are in now. This is the stage where we find out if internet support can convert to real votes. It appears in Iowa, where Ron Paul did not campaign that much and has views unpopular for farmers had a very well outcome. This is the stage where the rubber meets the road so to speak.

6- The rising star stage. hopefully New Hampshire will propel him into the underdog gone mainstream status.

7- The Viable electable stage. He has the money already. He has a fervent base. He has proven he can bring people to the polls. He just needs the push to get here.

I say this to encourage. I cannot predict the future, but it seems like it could be well with him. Even when the MSM is gloom and doom, it is only spin, and might not be consistant with reality.

Ron Paul on Sean Hannity’s Radio Show

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQIlNVbttuM

Ron Paul on Larry King Unaired

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s08RJ2_o_MM