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Filed under: AIG, bankruptcy, bernanke, Big Banks, Central Banks, CNN, Cold War, Congress, corporatism, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Dictatorship, Dollar, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, Empire, Euro, fannie mae, Fascism, FDIC, Federal Reserve, foreign aid, freddie mac, George Bush, georgia, glenn beck, global economy, gold, Goldman Sachs, Great Depression, Greenback, henry paulson, House, housing market, hyperinflation, Inflation, Lehman Brothers, liquidation, Media, middle class, Military, morgan stanley, mortgage, mortgage companies, mortgage lenders, nationalization, Nazi, Paulson, real estate, Ron Paul, Russia, Senate, silver, Stock Market, subprime, subprime lending, Taxpayers, US Constitution, US Economy, US Treasury, Wall Street, war funding, WW3, ww4 | Tags: john roberts, run on banks
Ron Paul: This Bailout Won’t Be the Last
Ron Paul on CNN w/ John Roberts
Ron Paul Blasts “Secret Government” Running Economy
Filed under: Alan Greenspan, Argentina, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Australia, Big Banks, brazil, California, carlyle group, Chicago, Cintra, consolidation, Credit Crisis, Credit Suisse, DEBT, ecnomic collapse, economic depression, Economy, florida, food prices, foreign buyout, foreign investors, global economy, gold, Goldman Sachs, Great Depression, Greenback, hyperinflation, Inflation, infrastructure, JPMorgan, Lehman Brothers, liquidation, morgan stanley, privatization, South America, spain, Stock Market, tax, Taxpayers, Toll Roads, US Economy | Tags: highways, indiana toll road, infrastructure transactions, investing, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, Krugerrands, Macquarie, Midway Airport, Pennsylvania Turnpike, roads, run on banks, skyway
Cities Debate Privatizing Public Infrastructure
NY Times
August 29, 2008
Cleaning up road kill and maintaining runways may not sound like cutting-edge investments. But banks and funds with big money seem to think so.
Reeling from more exotic investments that imploded during the credit crisis, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the Carlyle Group, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse are among the investors who have amassed an estimated $250 billion war chest — much of it raised in the last two years — to finance a tidal wave of infrastructure projects in the United States and overseas.
Their strategy is gaining steam in the United States as federal, state and local governments previously wary of private funds struggle under mounting deficits that have curbed their ability to improve crumbling roads, bridges and even airports with taxpayer money.
With politicians like Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California warning of a national infrastructure crisis, public resistance to private financing may start to ease.
“Budget gaps are starting to increase the viability of public-private partnerships,” said Norman Y. Mineta, a former secretary of transportation who was recently hired by Credit Suisse as a senior adviser to such deals.
This fall, Midway Airport of Chicago could become the first to pass into the hands of private investors. Just outside the nation’s capital, a $1.9 billion public-private partnership will finance new high-occupancy toll lanes around Washington. This week, Florida gave the green light to six groups that included JPMorgan, Lehman Brothers and the Carlyle Group to bid for a 50- to 75 -year lease on Alligator Alley, a toll road known for sightings of sleeping alligators that stretches 78 miles down I-75 in South Florida.
Until recently, the use of private funds to build and manage large-scale American infrastructure assets was slow to take root. States and towns could raise taxes and user fees or turn to the municipal bond market.
Americans have also been wary of foreign investors, who were among the first to this market, taking over their prized roads and bridges. When Macquarie of Australia and Cintra of Spain, two foreign funds with large portfolios of international investments, snapped up leases to the Chicago Skyway and the Indiana Toll Road, “people said ‘hold it, we don’t want our infrastructure owned by foreigners,’ ” Mr. Mineta said.
And then there is the odd romance between Americans and their roads: they do not want anyone other than the government owning them. The specter of investors reaping huge fees by financing assets like the Pennsylvania Turnpike also touches a raw nerve among taxpayers, who already feel they are paying top dollar for the government to maintain roads and bridges.
And with good reason: Private investors recoup their money by maximizing revenue — either making the infrastructure better to allow for more cars, for example, or by raising tolls. (Concession agreements dictate everything from toll increases to the amount of time dead animals can remain on the road before being cleared.)
Politicians have often supported the civic outcry: in the spring of 2007, James L. Oberstar of Minnesota, chairman of the House Committees on Transportation and Infrastructure, warned that his panel would “work to undo” any public-private partnership deals that failed to protect the public interest.
And labor unions have been quick to point out that investment funds stand to reap handsome fees from the crisis in infrastructure. “Our concern is that some sources of financing see this as a quick opportunity to make money,” Stephen Abrecht, director of the Capital Stewardship Program at the Service Employees International Union, said.
But in a world in which governments view infrastructure as a way to manage growth and raise productivity through the efficient movement of goods and people, an eroding economy has forced politicians to take another look.
“There’s a huge opportunity that the U.S. public sector is in danger of losing,” says Markus J. Pressdee, head of infrastructure investment banking at Credit Suisse. “It thinks there is a boatload of capital and when it is politically convenient it will be able to take advantage of it. But the capital is going into infrastructure assets available today around the world, and not waiting for projects the U.S., the public sector, may sponsor in the future.”
Traditionally, the federal government played a major role in developing the nation’s transportation backbone: Thomas Jefferson built canals and roads in the 1800s, Theodore Roosevelt expanded power generation in the early 1900s. In the 1950s Dwight Eisenhower oversaw the building of the interstate highway system.
But since the early 1990s, the United States has had no comprehensive transportation development, and responsibilities were pushed off to states, municipalities and metropolitan planning organizations. “Look at the physical neglect — crumbling bridges, the issue of energy security, environmental concerns,” said Robert Puentes of the Brookings Institution. “It’s more relevant than ever and we have no vision.”
The American Society of Civil Engineers estimates that the United States needs to invest at least $1.6 trillion over the next five years to maintain and expand its infrastructure. Last year, the Federal Highway Administration deemed 72,000 bridges, or more than 12 percent of the country’s total, “structurally deficient.” But the funds to fix them are shrinking: by the end of this year, the Highway Trust Fund will have a several billion dollar deficit.
“We are facing an infrastructure crisis in this country that threatens our status as an economic superpower, and threatens the health and safety of the people we serve,” New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg told Congress this year. In January he joined forces with Mr. Schwarzenegger and Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania to start a nonprofit group to raise awareness about the problem.
Some American pension funds see an investment opportunity. “Our infrastructure is crumbling, from bridges in Minnesota to our airports and freeways,” said Christopher Ailman, the head of the California State Teachers’ Retirement System. His board recently authorized up to about $800 million to invest in infrastructure projects. Nearby, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, with coffers totaling $234 billion, has earmarked $7 billion for infrastructure investments through 2010. The Washington State Investment Board has allocated 5 percent of its fund to such investments.
Some foreign pension funds that jumped into the game early have already reaped rewards: The $52 billion Ontario Municipal Employee Retirement System saw a 12.4 percent return last year on a $5 billion infrastructure investment pool, above the benchmark 9.9 percent though down from 14 percent in 2006.
“People are creating a new asset class,” said Anne Valentine Andrews, head of portfolio strategy at Morgan Stanley Infrastructure. “You can see and understand the businesses involved — for example, ships come into the port, unload containers, reload containers and leave,” she said. “There’s no black box.”
The prospect of steady returns has drawn high-flying investors like Kohlberg Kravis and Morgan Stanley to the table. “Ten to 20 years from now infrastructure could be larger than real estate,” said Mark Weisdorf, head of infrastructure investments at JPMorgan. In 2006 and 2007, more than $500 billion worth of commercial real estate deals were done.
The pace of recent work is encouraging, says Robert Poole, director of transportation studies at the Reason Foundation, pointing to projects like the high-occupancy toll, or HOT, lanes outside Washington. “The fact that the private sector raised $1.4 billion for the Beltway project shows that even projects like HOT lanes that are considered high risk can be developed and financed privately and that has huge implications for other large metro areas,” he said .
Yet if the flow of money is fast, the return on these investments can be a waiting game. Washington’s HOT lanes project took six years to build after Fluor Enterprises, one of the two private companies financing part of the project, made an unsolicited bid in 2002. The privatization of Chicago’s Midway Airport was part of a pilot program adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration in 1996 to allow five domestic airports to be privatized. Twelve years later only one airport has met that goal — Stewart International Airport in Newburgh, N.Y. — and it was sold back to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.
For many politicians, privatization also remains a painful process. Mitch Daniels, the governor of Indiana, faced a severe backlash when he collected $3.8 billion for a 75- year lease of the Indiana Toll Road. A popular bumper sticker in Indiana reads “Keep the toll road, lease Mitch.”
Joe Dear, executive director of the Washington State Investment Board, still wonders how quickly governments will move. “Will all public agencies think it’s worth the extra return private capital will demand?” he asked. “That’s unclear.”
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Filed under: Alan Greenspan, bailout, central bank, CNBC, Congress, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Dollar, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, fannie mae, Federal Reserve, food crisis, food market, food prices, freddie mac, gas prices, global economy, gold, Great Depression, Greenback, henry paulson, house senate, housing market, hyperinflation, Inflation, Jim Cramer, liquidation, Mad Money, Media, medicare, morgan stanley, mortgage, mortgage companies, mortgage lenders, nationalization, NYSE, Oil, Paulson, Petrol, real estate, SEC, Stock Market, subprime, subprime lending, US Economy, US Treasury, USDA, Wall Street, Warren Buffett | Tags: securities and exchange commission
Buffett Says Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac ’Game Is Over’
Bloomberg
August 22, 2008
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two largest mortgage finance companies, “don’t have any net worth,’’ billionaire investor Warren Buffett said.
“The game is over’’ as independent companies said Buffett, the 77-year-old chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., in an interview on CNBC today. “They were able to borrow without any of the normal restraints. They had a blank check from the federal government.’’
Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae touched 20-year lows yesterday on the New York Stock Exchange on speculation a government bailout will leave the stocks worthless. U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson won approval from Congress last month to pump emergency capital into the companies, which account for more than half of the $12 trillion U.S. mortgage market.
Fannie and Freddie mispriced their products and “kept existing because they had the federal government behind them,’’ Buffett said. Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire had been among the largest holders of Freddie until about 2001, when it became apparent the company wasn’t being run well, he said.
Jim Cramer Talks About Market Manipulation
http://www.reuters.com/article..220080820?sp=true
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US Crony Capitalism
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Morgan Stanley Says Financial Crisis Will Last: Report
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Wholesale prices: Highest annual rate in 27 years
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Wall Street Pulls Back As Financials Fall
Stocks Fall On Inflation Data
Financial Fears, Soaring Inflation Hit Wall Street
Filed under: bailout, Big Banks, central bank, Credit Crisis, DEBT, deficit, Dollar, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, Euro, freddie mac, global economy, gold, Great Depression, Greenback, housing market, hyperinflation, Inflation, infrastructure, liquidation, Mexico, morgan stanley, mortgage companies, mortgage lenders, ohio, Oil, privatization, real estate, Stock Market, tax, Toll Roads, US Economy, Wall Street | Tags: highways, infrastructure transactions, investing, roads, run on banks
U.S. Roads, Airports Being Sold To Private Investors
Reuters
August 4, 2008
Cash-strapped U.S. state and city governments are likely to sell or lease more highways, bridges, airports and other assets to investors desperate for stable returns after being frazzled by the credit crisis.
The trend is set to pick up speed given worsening budget deficits in state capitals and city halls nationwide.
It will also be welcomed by Wall Street bankers hoping to help create and market so-called “infrastructure” transactions at a time many debt markets remain paralyzed, and after major U.S. stock indexes fell into bear market territory.
“When you are nervous about everything else, you put your money in a toll road,” said John Schmidt, a partner at the law firm Mayer Brown LLP in Chicago. “That’s the logic of infrastructure. Returns are stable and predictable. You won’t get fabulously rich, but you’ll get stable cash flow.”
The latest enthusiasm for at least partially privatizing infrastructure assets came on July 30 from New York Gov. David Paterson, who is trying to plug a budget deficit caused in part by lower tax revenue as Wall Street retrenches.
“We’re just looking at ways to be more efficient and that’s why I used the term public-private partnerships — trying to find some creative solutions,” Paterson said. “The reason I’m avoiding taxes is because I think taxes are addictive.”
Bankers and others in the industry say there is pent-up demand from dedicated infrastructure funds and public pension funds to invest in hard assets — perhaps $75 billion to $150 billion of equity capital — but not enough supply.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pi…fQ0PVYvOgzI&refer=home
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Dollar soars to 5-mth high vs euro as turnaround eyed
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list of ’fastest-dying’ cities includes four in Ohio
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Filed under: central bank, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Dow, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, gas prices, Goldman Sachs, Great Depression, Greenback, IEA, Inflation, morgan stanley, Oil, Petrol, Russia, Stock Market, US Economy | Tags: commerzbank, gazprom
Oil seen hitting $150 this summer: Goldman analyst
Reuters
June 9, 2008
Oil prices are likely to hit $150 a barrel this summer season, the global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs said on Monday, as tighter supplies outweigh weakening demand.
“I would suggest that the likelihood of that happening sooner has increased tremendously … sometime in summer,” Jeffrey Currie told an oil and gas conference in the Malaysian capital, referring to oil at $150 a barrel.
Goldman Sachs, the most active investment bank in energy markets and one of the first to point to triple-digit oil more than two years ago — a once unthinkable level — said last month oil could shoot up to $200 within the next two years as part of a “super spike.”
Morgan Stanley Analyst Sees Oil Driven To $150 By July 4
Dow Jones
June 6, 2008
Strong demand from Asia will cause a short-term spike in oil prices to $150 a barrel by July 4, a Morgan Stanley analyst said Friday.
Oil prices took a big step in that direction Friday, with benchmark futures rising 5% and topping $134 a barrel in morning trading. A spike to $150 would significantly raise the risk of severe damage to oil-sensitive sectors.
Aviation executives have said even $125 oil wrecks the industry’s business model, and chemical companies like Dow Chemical (DOW) have sharply raised prices to accommodate the soaring cost of petroleum feedstocks. Retailers and others who rely on consumers with budgets pinched by high gasoline prices are also under stress.
Gazprom predicts oil will reach $250 in 2009
Financial Times
June 10, 2008
Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly, on Tuesday predicted oil prices would reach $250 a barrel in 2009.
The striking prediction came as the International Energy Agency, the developed world’s energy watchdog, warned that record high prices were needed to choke off demand in order to balance the oil market.
It is the IEA’s most candid admission to date that oil supply is struggling to catch up with Asian demand, and follows the sharp rise in prices last week, which saw crude jump more than $16.24 in less than 36 hours to a record $139.12.
Gazprom’s prediction came at a strategy presentation in Deauville, where Alexei Miller, chief executive, said: “Today we are witnessing a very great change for hydrocarbons. The level is very high and we think it [the price of oil] will reach $250 a barrel.” A company spokesman specified that Gazprom believed that level would be hit in 2009.
That is substantially higher than forecasts by analysts, who see oil prices in 2009 ranging between $100 and $200.
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Filed under: bernanke, BIS, Britain, central bank, China, Credit Crisis, DEBT, ECB, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, Europe, european central bank, european union, Federal Reserve, food crisis, food market, food prices, food shortage, gold, Great Depression, Greenback, housing market, imf, Inflation, Japan, morgan stanley, real estate, Stock Market, United Kingdom, US Economy | Tags: corn, OTC, royal bank of scotland
RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
London Telegraph
June 18, 2008
The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to brace for a full-fledged crash in global stock and credit markets over the next three months as inflation paralyses the major central banks.
“A very nasty period is soon to be upon us – be prepared,” said Bob Janjuah, the bank’s credit strategist.
A report by the bank’s research team warns that the S&P 500 index of Wall Street equities is likely to fall by more than 300 points to around 1050 by September as “all the chickens come home to roost” from the excesses of the global boom, with contagion spreading across Europe and emerging markets.
BIS Warns Of Great Depression
Banking Times
June 11, 2008
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the organisation that fosters cooperation between central banks, has warned that the credit crisis could lead world economies into a crash on a scale not seen since the 1930s.
In its latest quarterly report, the body points out that the Great Depression of the 1930s was not foreseen and that commentators on the financial turmoil, instigated by the US sub-prime mortgage crisis, may not have grasped the level of exposure that lies at its heart.
According to the BIS, complex credit instruments, a strong appetite for risk, rising levels of household debt and long-term imbalances in the world currency system, all form part of the loose monetarist policy that could result in another Great Depression.
The report points out that between March and May of this year, interbank lending continued to show signs of extreme stress and that this could be set to continue well into the future.
It also raises concerns about the Chinese economy and questions whether China may be repeating mistakes made by Japan, with its so called bubble economy of the late 1980s.
Notional Value Of Derivatives Hits One Quadrillion
Jim Sinclair
JS Mineset
June 11, 2008
The notional value of all outstanding derivatives now totals approximately $1.144 QUADRILLION.
This appears to be Bank of International Settlement Spin to announce the largest gain in derivatives outstanding since they started to report. As of the last report it appeared that both listed and OTC derivatives was under $600 trillion. Now listed credit derivatives alone stood at $548 Trillion. The OTC derivatives are shown as $596 trillion notional value, as of December 2007. One can only imagine what number they are at now.
Well we hit a QUADRILLION. We have more than $1000 trillion dollars in all derivatives outstanding. That is simply NUTS because notional value becomes real value when either counterparty to the OTC derivative goes bankrupt. $548 trillion plus $596 trillion means $1.144 quadrillion.
It would be an interesting piece of research to see what the breakdown is of listed derivatives according to exchange to see if it adds up to the reported number. Spin is now everywhere.
This means that no OTC derivative house can be allowed to go broke. This means that whatever funds are required to rescue failing international investment banks, banks and financial entities will be provided.
Keep this economic law in mind. Monetary inflation proceeds price inflation and is its primary cause in economic history from Rome to present.
Nothing can stop the juggernaut of price inflation heading towards every nation like a runaway freight train down a mountain.
Gold is going to at least $1650. I am probably way too low with that estimate.
The US dollar will trade down to at least .5200 as measured by the USDX.
Policy-makers around the globe declared soaring inflation a top threat on Monday, with pressure rising for central banks to raise interest rates amid protests against higher costs of living.
Gold is the easiest market to trade for the aggressive investor. Sell 1/3 when the market looks like a Rhino Horn which you will see with your French Curves at the point of the rollover.
Buy 1/3 back when the price of gold looks like a fishing line hanging off a fishing rod. Your maximum power down trend line will give you this.
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Filed under: Alan Greenspan, bernanke, Big Banks, Britain, California, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Department of Defense, DoD, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, ethanol, Europe, european union, Federal Reserve, food prices, Great Depression, Greenback, henry paulson, House, housing market, Hugo Chavez, imf, Inflation, interest rate cuts, morgan stanley, Oppenheimer, rate cut, southern california, Stock Market, subprime, subprime lending, tax rebates, tent city, United Kingdom, US Economy, Venezuela, War On Terror, WW2
Fed Lowers Interest Rates 50 Basis Points
Bloomberg
January 30, 2008
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 3 percent, the second cut in as many weeks, to prevent the U.S. economy from sinking into a recession.
“Today’s policy action, combined with those taken earlier, should help to promote moderate growth over time and to mitigate the risks to economic activity,” the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement after meeting today in Washington. “However, downside risks to growth remain.”
Morgan Stanley Strategist: Head For The Hills
Bloomberg
January 30, 2008
Barton Biggs has some offbeat advice for the rich: Insure yourself against war and disaster by buying a remote farm or ranch and stocking it with “seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc.”
The “etc.” must mean guns.
“A few rounds over the approaching brigands’ heads would probably be a compelling persuader that there are easier farms to pillage,” he writes in his new book, “Wealth, War and Wisdom.”
Biggs is no paranoid survivalist. He was chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley before leaving in 2003 to form hedge fund Traxis Partners. He doesn’t lock and load until the last page of this smart look at how World War II warped share prices, gutted wealth and remains a warning to investors. His message: Listen to markets, learn from history and prepare for the worst.
Chance of recession at least 50 percent: Greenspan
Reuters
January 30, 2008
The likelihood of the economy slipping into recession is at least 50 percent, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was quoted on Wednesday as saying.
“I believe the probability of a recession is at least 50 percent, but up to now there are few signs that we are already in one,” Greenspan said in an interview with weekly newspaper Die Zeit published in German. “In my opinion, it will probably happen but the facts suggest we are not there yet.”
Asked whether central bankers and financial policymakers could head off a U.S. recession, Greenspan said: “Probably not. Global economic influences today are stronger than almost anything that monetary or fiscal policy can counter them with.”
“Long-term real interest rates have significantly more influence on the core of the economy than decisions by national governments,” he added. “And central banks have increasingly lost the ability to influence these long-term rates, whereas 20 or 30 years ago they still dominated there.
“So the more important question today is in which direction long-term real interest rates are heading.”
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again on Wednesday as part of its effort to offset the effects of a deep housing slump and credit crunch. This cut would follow a 75 basis point reduction last week to 3.5 percent and mark one of the deepest and fastest rate-cutting episodes since the early 1980s.
The U.S. economy grew at a 4.9 percent annual rate in the third quarter of 2007, but gloomy economic data this month — notably a report of weak hiring in December — suggests growth has slowed abruptly.
Southern California Shanty Town / Tent City
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmeHiFZUWtE
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Filed under: Britain, central bank, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, Europe, european union, Federal Reserve, george soros, Great Depression, Greenback, Inflation, interest rate cuts, morgan stanley, rate cut, Stock Market, United Kingdom, US Economy, US Treasury
Soros: Central Banks Have Lost Control
Reuters
January 23, 2008
Business leaders rattled by a slump in global markets appealed to the U.S. and other central banks on Wednesday to get a grip on the global economy and some accused them of losing their nerve.
With share prices tumbling again despite an emergency U.S. interest rate cut on Tuesday to counter fears of recession, top executives expressed alarm as they gathered for an annual meeting in the Swiss resort of Davos.
“Central banks have lost control,” said financier George Soros, echoing the concerns of many of the more than 2,000 business and political leaders arriving in the snow-clad mountain town for the World Economic Forum meeting.
In a debate on the U.S. economy, 59 percent of participants agreed with a motion that central bankers had lost control.
Officials from Washington tried to counter the gloom.
“The U.S. economy has sound economic fundamentals,” David McCormick, U.S. Undersecretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, said, challenging the view of many around him that a U.S. recession was inevitable.
“While we continue to believe the U.S. economy will grow, it will grow at a slower pace and there is no doubt downside risks have increased,” he said.
But many executives said the surprise decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve on Tuesday to cut interest rates by 75 basis points looked like a panic move.
“I’m sort of worried that all they did yesterday was to hit the snooze button. (This is) excessive monetary accommodation that just takes us from bubble to bubble to bubble,” said Stephen Roach, Asia head of U.S. bank Morgan Stanley.
Lawrence Summers, a former U.S. treasury chief, was critical too: “It’s hard to give a high grade (to central banks) for what’s happened in the last six months.”
Soros: End Of Dollar Reserve
IHT
January 24, 2008
The United States has filled various roles at the World Economic Forum over the past decade: dot-com dynamo, benevolent superpower, feared aggressor, and now, wounded giant.
On the first day of this conference, a parade of bankers, economists, and political officials expressed deep fears about the faltering American economy, peppered with blunt criticism of its institutions, chiefly the Federal Reserve, which some accused of sowing the seeds of today’s crisis.
George Soros, the financier who made a fortune betting against the pound, went so far Wednesday as to say that the downturn would put an end to the long status of the dollar as the world’s default currency.
“The current crisis is not only the bust that follows the housing boom,” Soros said. “It’s basically the end of a 60-year period of continuing credit expansion based on the dollar as the reserve currency.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/mon..08/01/23/bcndollar123.xml
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/..&in_page_id=1770
http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/pe..st-recession-for-50-years,13683
Filed under: bernanke, central bank, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, Federal Reserve, food prices, gas prices, gold, Great Depression, Greenback, Inflation, interest rate cuts, morgan stanley, rate cut, silver, Stock Market, US Economy
Gold Futures Rise to Record $900.10 on Interest-Rate Outlook
Pham-Duy Nguyen
Bloomberg
January 11, 2008
Gold futures rose to a record $900.10 an ounce on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut U.S. interest rates further, weakening the dollar and boosting the investment appeal of the precious metal. Silver also gained.
HSBC Securities USA Inc. and Morgan Stanley predicted the central bank will reduce its benchmark rate by half a percentage point this month to 3.75 percent after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke suggested cuts may be necessary to guard against an economic slowdown. Gold rose 31 percent last year when the Fed slashed rates 1 percentage point, sending the dollar 9.5 percent lower against the euro.
“If the Fed drops rates, a lower dollar will propel gold higher,” said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Chicago. “Everything we buy is going to be more expensive. Any raw material will go through the roof. The smart people see inflation.”
http://economictimes.indiatim…00/articleshow/2691202.cms
Filed under: bernanke, central bank, China, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, energy, Europe, Federal Reserve, GAO, gold, Great Depression, Greenback, Inflation, interest rate cuts, morgan stanley, Northern Rock, poll, rate cut, silver, Stock Market, UBS, United Kingdom, US Economy
Fed promises as much money as the banks want
Fed Has Auctioned Another $20B in Funds to Commercial Banks to Combat Credit Crunch
AP
December 21, 2007
The Federal Reserve, working to combat the effects of a severe credit crunch, announced Friday it had auctioned another $20 billion in funds to commercial banks at an interest rate of 4.67 percent. Fed officials pledged to continue with the auctions “for as long as necessary.”
The central bank said it had received bids for $57.7 billion worth of loans, nearly three times the amount being offered, indicating continued strong interest in the Fed’s new approach to providing money to cash-strapped banks.
It was the second of four scheduled auctions. The first auction, on Monday, of $20 billion resulted in loans being awarded at an interest rate of 4.65 percent. There were 93 bidders seeking $63.6 billion at the first auction and 73 at the second.
Two more auctions will occur in early January. In a statement Friday, the central bank said it would continue with further auctions “for as long as necessary to address elevated pressures in short-term funding markets.”
The new auction process was announced by the Fed last week in a coordinated action with central banks around the world trying to address a global credit crunch.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues decided to try the new process because their efforts to inject funds into the banking system through the Fed’s discount window, which makes direct loans to banks, had proven less successful than Fed officials had hoped.
Many banks had avoided using the Fed’s discount window out of concern that investors would see the move as an indication of underlying problems at their financial institutions.
The auction process was developed as a second way to get money into the banking system with the hopes that it would not carry the stigma of the discount window.
The Fed said Friday that it would announce on Jan. 4 the sizes of the next two auctions which will be held Jan. 14 and Jan. 28. Officials have said the Fed will evaluate the interest in the auctions after the initial four and determine whether more auctions will be scheduled.
The new auction results cover short-term loans for 35 days.
The global credit crisis has made banks reluctant to lend to each other even as the Fed has been lowering its federal funds rate, the interest that banks charge each other for overnight loans.
The rate currently stands at 4.25 percent, a full percentage point lower than it was in September when the Fed began slashing rates in the wake of a severe credit squeeze that had roiled global markets in August.
The 4.67 percent rate for the second $20 billion in funds and the 4.65 percent rate for the first auction means that banks who are using the auction process to get needed reserves are getting them at a rate slightly below the 4.75 percent rate they could get in direct loans through the discount window.
The Fed cut the federal funds rate and the discount rate by a quarter-point at its last meeting on Dec. 11, disappointing investors who had hoped for a bigger half-point reduction in the funds rate.
Many economists believe the Fed will keep cutting rates with three more quarter-point reductions expected in the funds rate at the Fed’s first three meetings of the new year.
Analysts believe that a serious slowdown in overall economic growth will force the Fed to continue cutting rates even though some Fed officials have expressed worries that the rate cuts could exacerbate inflation pressures, which have flared up again, reflecting a renewed surge in oil prices.
People & Power – Death of the dollar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54MUm2P1jOU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HdrNbhdl7uU
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN1821436620071219
Gold climbs above $800 in London as dollar drops; silver gains
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=159758
Northern Rock Rescue Cost $100B
http://www.fmnn.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=52822
US Inflation Soars – Largest Rise in Producer Prices Since 1973!
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article3128.html
US foreclosure filings up 68 pct in Nov.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071219/ap_on_bi_ge/foreclosure_rates
U.S. Dollar’s Credibility Being `Stretched,’ UBS Economist Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601…o4&refer=home
US Federal Reserve’s subprime regulations shield Wall Street banks
http://www.wsws.org/articles/2007/dec2007/mort-d21.shtml
Economy teeters on brink, says Resler
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.a…&siteid=mktw
GAO Says Government Failed Yet Another Financial Audit
http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cf…2&dcn=todaysnews
One in Five Americans Must Borrow to Heat Homes This Winter
http://www.alternet.org/blogs/peek/71071/
Morgan Stanley secures $5bn from China
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j….9/bcnmorgan119.xml
CNN: Ron Paul Says U.S. Going Broke
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lP6MtMq5cBw
ECB Offers Banks Unlimited Funds
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7149329.stm
Overstock.com CEO warns of depression
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m-TLfmLTiqA
Filed under: Big Banks, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, eurozone, Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs, Great Depression, Greenback, housing market, Inflation, liquidation, morgan stanley, Paulson, rate freeze, Stock Market, subprime, subprime lending, US Economy, US Treasury, Wall Street
Morgan Stanley issues full US recession alert
Daily Telegraph
December 10, 2007
Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for the US economy, warning of a sharp slowdown in business investment and a “perfect storm” for consumers as the housing slump spreads.
In a report “Recession Coming” released today, the bank’s US team said the credit crunch had started to inflict serious damage on US companies.
“Slipping sales and tightening credit are pushing companies into liquidation mode, especially in motor vehicles,” it said.
“Three-month dollar Libor spreads have jumped by 60 to 80 basis points over the last month. High yield spreads have widened even more significantly. The absolute cost of borrowing is higher than in June.”
“As delinquencies and defaults soar, lenders are tightening credit for commercial, credit card and auto lending, as well as for all mortgage borrowers,” said the report, written by the bank’s chief US economist Dick Berner. He said the foreclosure rate on residential mortgages had reached a 19-year high of 5.59pc in the third quarter while the glut of unsold properties would lead to a 40pc crash in housing construction.
“We think overall housing starts will run below one million units in each of the next two years — a level not seen in the history of the modern data since 1959,” he said.
Although the US job market has apparently held up well, an average monthly fall of 138,000 in the number of self-employed workers over the last quarter suggests it may now be buckling. “Consumers face what could be a perfect storm,” said Mr Berner.
The partial freeze on subprime mortgage rates announced last week by US treasury secretary Hank Paulson may help cushion the blow for some banks, but it could equally backfire by adding a “risk premium” that drives even more lenders out of the mortgage market.
Like Goldman Sachs, and Lehman Brothers, the bank no longer believes Asia and Europe will come to the rescue as America slows.
It has slashed its 2008 growth forecast for Japan from 1.9pc to 0.9pc, and warned that credit stress will weigh heavily on the eurozone.
Mr Berner said US demand is likely to contract by 1pc each quarter for the first nine months of 2008, but the picture could be far worse if the Federal Reserve fails to slash rates fast enough. It is betting on a quarter point cut this week, with three more cuts by the middle of next year. “We expect the Fed to insure against the worst outcome,” he said.
Morgan Stanley is the first major Wall Street bank to warn that it is may now be too late to stop a recession, though most have shifted to an ultra-cautious stance in recent weeks.
The bank at first treated the August crunch as a “mid-cycle correction”, much like the financial storm after Russia’s default in 1998. But the collapse of the US commercial paper market has now continued for seventeen weeks, suggesting a “fundamental deleveraging of the banking system.”
Mr Berner — known at Morgan Stanley as the “resident bull” — is one of the most closely watched analysts on Wall Street. While he began to turn bearish last April as the credit markets turned nasty, the latest report is written in tones that may is rattle the fast-diminishing band of optimists.
Filed under: bernanke, central bank, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, fannie mae, Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs, Great Depression, Greenback, henry paulson, Henry Van der Eb, Inflation, interest rate cut, JPMorgan, Merrill Lynch, morgan stanley, Paulson, rate cut, Stock Market, US Economy, US Treasury, Wall Street, wells fargo
Market bears’ gloomy growl being echoed by big players
Chicago Tribune
December 2, 2007
Henry Van der Eb has run a mutual fund designed to weather financial disaster since the 1970s, continually preparing for the worst even as stock prices mostly soared.
Now he senses the times turning in his favor, and while he isn’t wishing hardship on anybody, some of Wall Street’s biggest and most respected players are echoing his gloomy cry.
Merrill Lynch last week issued a series of research reports warning of “pre-recession” conditions, even as stock prices first plunged, then soared. Goldman Sachs predicted housing woes would be “considerably worse than we originally anticipated.” And giant European bank Societe Generale warned risks are “growing rather than receding.”
For the first time in years, Van der Eb and his fellow “bears,” as the market’s perpetual doomsayers are known, were enjoying high-powered company.
By the end of the week, however, the bleak forecasts had been offset by the promise of U.S. central bankers riding to the rescue with a series of interest-rate cuts aimed at bringing about a soft landing for the sagging economy. In a speech Thursday evening, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke promised to be “exceptionally alert and flexible.” Relieved investors bid the market higher in the expectation of further rate cuts beginning when Fed policymakers meet Dec. 11.
Van der Eb, manager of the Gamco Mathers Fund in north suburban Bannockburn, was unmoved. Fed action is no cure for the “reckless lending” that’s weighing on the markets today, he declared. “At some point, the rhetoric can’t keep overriding the fundamentals. You can’t create perpetual prosperity on debt.”
Waiting for stocks to plunge is a lonely business, and while last week’s volatile ups and downs clearly reflect unsettled times, they also illustrate the near-impossible task of predicting the market’s direction. For every Cassandra convinced the retreat of credit markets will take down the broader economy, an optimist points to the boom in U.S. exports brought about by the falling dollar, or to a Fed chairman eagerly resisting any sudden downturns.
As Morgan Stanley analyst Gerard Minack noted, “Most investors still expect the U.S. to land softly. Notwithstanding the jitters of the past few weeks, equity markets do not appear to me to be pricing in anything worse.”
While many analysts are forecasting just such a soft landing, the typical bear is betting against it, more visibly than at any time in years.
Anyone curious about the worst-case-scenario for the economy can find it at their local bookstore, where sky-is-falling analyses have been writ large in 2007 titles such as “Financial Armageddon” and “Crash Proof.”
Stock-market pessimists such as David Tice, manager of the Prudent Bear mutual fund, have become familiar voices to anyone paying attention to the financial media. “We’re as confident as we’ve ever been that the wheels have come off,” said Tice, expressing a sentiment reflecting his views for some time now. “We’re sad for the country.”
‘Revolution’ on horizon?
Ravi Batra, among the most bearish of bears, expects nothing less than a popular uprising against “moneyed interests preventing reform” and, eventually, “a revolution.”
The polite, soft-spoken economics professor from Southern Methodist University is no stranger to such alarmist ideas, and Batra says he’s “logging a lot of interviews” these days. He also has a new book, “The New Golden Age,” its optimistic title referring to the period that supposedly will follow the bedlam he foresees over the next five years.
Batra achieved fleeting glory when his book, “The Great Depression of 1990,” became a best seller in the aftermath of the 1987 stock market crash. And while the Dow Jones industrial average has gained more than 10,000 points in the years since, Batra has seen calamity lurking around the corner pretty much all along.
The only reason his predictions weren’t spot on, he said, is because he underestimated America’s capacity for debt. But he has no doubt the end is near: “American consumers can’t borrow any more,” he said. “That game is over.”
Perhaps chastened by the economic staying power that has defied their expectations in the past, neither Van der Eb, Tice nor even the far-out Batra predicts an imminent crash. Tice comes closest: “It may rally short-term. But we’ve started the bear market, and it’s going to go a lot lower.”
Predictably, Tice emphasizes the falling housing market and mortgage crisis. He expects Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage companies, to fall into disarray. And he sees an enormous hangover from the boom in structured finance. “We’re in the first inning of this thing,” he warned.
Van der Eb considers it premature to declare a full-blown bust in the making. “It’s probably too soon to say it’s going to be the big one,” he said. But trouble looms in bad-credit problems that “really dwarf” the dot-com bubble of 2000, he noted. “We’re headed toward the open water here, and we’ll just have to see how bad the waves get.”
Of course, those negative vibes belie the fact stock prices recovered sharply last week. On Monday, all looked bleak as the Dow Jones industrial average fell 237 points, bringing its decline from mid-October past the 10 percent threshold that signifies a correction. Though benchmarks differ, a “bear market” typically becomes official after a 20 percent decline, and the drop can be far sharper: During the dot-com collapse earlier this decade, large-capitalization stocks lost roughly half their value from the peak in 2000 before bouncing back.
If another drubbing is due, it was difficult to tell from the way the market shook off its Monday blues to post its biggest weekly gain in two months.
Not only did Bernanke signal a willingness to cut interest rates, but the Treasury moved closer to a plan to help Americans avert mortgage foreclosures.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. led financial shares to their best weekly gain in four years. Home builders rallied the most in seven years on Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s plan to buoy their market. For the week, the Dow rose 3 percent, the Nasdaq 2.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 2.8 percent.
Even bad news, such as a government report Friday showing that incomes and spending rose less in October than economists had forecast, merely boosted the confidence of investors that Fed policymakers would be cutting rates sharply for months to come.
The long-distance stock-market bear takes such rosy appraisals in stride.
Tice, for one, scoffs at “everybody who says it is time to buy every time the Fed cuts rates.” The bear market won’t unfold by moving straight down, he predicted. “You’ll have one-day rallies that give hope this is the time to buy.”
But don’t fall into the trap, Tice asserted: “People just ought to get out.”
Filed under: 2008 Election, bernanke, China, citigroup, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, Euro, fannie mae, Federal Reserve, food prices, foreclosure, freddie mac, gold, Goldman Sachs, Great Depression, Greenback, henry paulson, housing market, imf, Inflation, infrastructure, interest rate cuts, morgan stanley, Paulson, Petrol, rate cut, Stock Market, subprime, subprime lending, UAE, United Kingdom, US Economy, US Treasury
Bernanke Clears Way For Fed Rate Cut
Financial Times
November 30, 2007
Ben Bernanke put the Federal Reserve on a path towards a December rate cut in a speech on Thursday night in which he said the relapse in financial markets had resulted in a “tightening in financial conditions” that had the potential to harm the real economy.
The Fed chairman also said recent data on household spending had been “on the soft side” and warned that the combination of higher petrol prices, the weak housing market, tighter credit conditions and declines in stock prices seem likely to create some headwinds for the consumer in the months ahead.
Paulson’s Plan to Punish the Public
The Motley Fool
November 30, 2007
If you don’t learn from the past …
If the mortgage crisis and housing bubble have taught us one thing, it should be to watch out for the unintended consequences of greed. Unfortunately, our nation’s legislators and political appointees haven’t learned that lesson. Recent plans for housing and mortgage bailouts generally run from dumb to dumber. Today, The Wall Street Journal reported on yet another scheme, reportedly being spearheaded by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. It’s an idea so naively populist and antimarket that you would think it came from Hugo Chavez, Evo Morales, or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, if not for its cringe-inducing, Beltway-wonk moniker: the Hope Now Alliance.
In short, bankers and loan-servicing outfits are going to lower interest rates on strapped borrowers so they don’t lose their houses. How much, how long, and who qualifies are all still up in the air. No doubt, this will sound good to those folks who signed on for mortgages they can’t actually afford. It will also look good to politicians angling to score points before the next election, and to bleeding hearts everywhere. It will also look good to select mortgage-industry players — like Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) and Citigroup (NYSE: C), which could really use a government-led bailout.
Unfortunately, this ill-conceived salve will ultimately punish the silent majority of Americans, people who didn’t go out and make boneheaded financial decisions over the past half-decade. Let’s take a look at why.
Price tag in mortgage crisis is looking like real money
http://www.latimes.com/bu…la-home-center
Foreclosure fallout: Renters forced out of lost homes
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/11/30/willis.rentervictims/index.html
Shadow Mortgage Bailout Already in Progress
http://efinancedirectory.com/articles/Sha…_Progress.html
U.S. Government, Banks Near a Plan to Freeze Subprime Rates
http://cryptogon.com/?p=1662
UK: Trouble ahead for the economy
http://www.thebusiness.co.uk/the-m…economy.thtml
IMF Warns Of UK Recession
http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/articl….NG-OPEN.XML
Video: “Food Banks Nationwide Face Shortages”
http://www.thought-criminal.org/article/node/1021
In the long run, value of paper currencies is zero
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10208445
More bad news for the dollar as the UAE gets ready to dump it
http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/…p-it_1006967.html
China’s attempt to convert its U.S. Treasury holdings into euros
http://www.m-cam.com/display_news?id=240
Growth in Consumer Spending Slows While Construction Activity Drops Sharply
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071130/economy.html
Goldman Sachs Says To Short Gold In 08
http://www.reportonbusiness.c…wgoldman1129
Treasury Close to Subprime Aid Plan
http://www.cnbc.com/id/22039476
Morgan Stanley may face $5.7 billion Q4 writeoff
http://www.reuters.com/article/bankin….EN275220071130
New Home Prices: Worst Drop In 37 Years
http://money.cnn.com/2007/1…./?postversion=2007112912
More than 50,000 Lost Their Homes in October
http://money.cnn.com/2007/….rsion=2007112905
China wins from credit crunch fallout
Fed pumps $8bn into market to head off new crunch
ECB injects £35bn into markets
Foreclosures Up 165% In FLA
Oil Surges After Pipeline Bursts
U.S. incomes fall, spending flat in October
Gazprom May Switch Sales to Rubles as Dollar Weakens
US Dollar: No Longer the World’s Currency?
A diary of the onset of the Greater Depression
Gold Slips Under $800, Oil Plummets $94 on Firmer Dollar
Foreclosures Will Create Ghost Towns
As credit dries up in U.S., concerns mount about recession
Sterling falls vs recovering dollar
Oil Producers See the World and Buy It Up
Fed Official Warns Of Wall Street Turmoil
A Dollar the Size of a Postage Stamp
Bet your bottom dollar tensions will follow
Housing woes have domino effect
The Next Big Bankruptcy
88% Erosion of the Dollar’s Purchasing Power
Video: Money As Debt
Forecast: U.S. Dollar Could Plunge 90 Percent
Gold sees 2-week peak as investors run for safety
Forex – Euro retreats after Friday’s failure at 1.50 usd
Retail Stocks Fall; Black Friday Spending Seen Lower
U.S. dollar may be nearing nadir on charts
Oil Prices Rise Near $99 As Temps Fall
Don’t look now: Here comes the recession
The Real Reason why Stocks are Plunging
The plunging greenback threatens to cripple U.S. power. Why are the candidates ignoring this critical issue?
1000% Hedge Fund Wins Subprime Bet
U.S. Economic Collapse News Archive
Filed under: bernanke, central bank, Credit Crisis, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, Euro, european central bank, european union, Federal Reserve, food prices, foreclosure, gold, Great Depression, Greenback, henry paulson, housing market, Inflation, interest rate cuts, Japan, middle class, morgan stanley, rate cut, sterling, Stock Market, subprime, subprime lending, US Economy
Dollar’s decline may prompt joint intervention, Morgan Stanley says
Stanley White
Bloomberg News
November 5, 2007
The decline of the dollar to record lows might turn into a “more violent correction” that requires the United States, the European Union and Japan to intervene in foreign exchange markets, analysts at Morgan Stanley say.
Coordinated intervention could occur after the U.S. Federal Reserve has finished cutting interest rates and the European Central Bank has ceased raising them, according to Morgan Stanley, the investment bank.
Japan might act if the dollar approached ¥100, the bank added. But the three major economies are unlikely to intervene as long as the euro stays below $1.50, it said.
“The dollar could potentially weaken meaningfully further,” two Morgan Stanley analysts, Stephen Jen and Charles St-Arnaud, wrote in a note sent to clients late last week. “Though coordinated interventions may not be an immediate threat, they should now be on our radar screen.”
The dollar index, a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, fell to 76.331 on Friday, the lowest reading since it was created in 1973 and down from 77.03 at the end of the previous week.
The euro traded at $1.4505 at the close of trading in New York, up from $1.4393 a week ago. The dollar bought ¥114.853, little changed on the week.
Veteran investor calls Bernanke `a nut’ over rate cut
Bloomberg
November 4, 2007
US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is “a nut” and interest-rate cuts by the central bank are harming the US economy by fueling inflation, investor Jim Rogers said.
“Bernanke loves printing money,” Rogers said in an interview in New York. “This man is a nut. The dollar is collapsing, commodities are going through the roof, which means inflation’s going through the roof. These people are leading us to terrible problems down the line.”
Rogers, the 65-year-old chairman of Beeland Interests Inc, also said he was selling short shares of Citigroup Inc, the biggest US bank, and Fannie Mae, the largest provider of money for US home loans.
Investors should buy commodities and the Chinese currency, Rogers said.
The Fed this week cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 4.5 percent. Policymakers have now lowered their target rate for overnight loans between banks by 0.75 percentage points in six weeks, the most aggressive easing since the economy was emerging from its last recession in 2001.
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Foreclosure wave sweeps America
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Paulson’s Focus on Subprime `Excesses’ Shows His Goldman Gorged
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A Washington official dares to tell the truth: Washington is bankrupting future generations
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Crash is coming, warns top investor
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Oil Crisis in Summer ’09: War in Iran. Gasoline rationing. A military draft. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan. Double-digit inflation and unemployment
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11/02/business/oilgame.php
CDS traders warn of ‘blood on streets’
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/moneybox/7065183.stm
Central banks flooded the world with cheap money for years, helping the rich get richer. Now inflation is on the horizon, threatening to make the poor even poorer.
The Fed digs us a deeper hole
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Fed Pumps $41B Into US Financial System
U.S. Economic Collapse News Archive