Filed under: austria, Bank of England, BOE, Britain, Central Banks, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Dollar, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, Europe, european union, Germany, global economy, gold, gold shortage, Great Depression, Greenback, hyperinflation, Inflation, Lehman Brothers, london, manipulated economy, manipulated prices, market manipulation, mortgage, mortgage companies, mortgage lenders, nationalization, platinum, silver, silver shortage, south africa, Stock Market, switzerland, UBS, United Kingdom, US Economy, us mint, Wall Street | Tags: HBOS, Jurg Kiener, Krugerrand, run on banks
Gold Runs Out In Germany
Allan Hall
London Evening Standard
October 12, 2008
Risk-averse Germans are turning to gold in troubled times – but there’s none left.
German gold dealers say demand has skyrocketed this past week to 10 times normal so no more orders can be taken for the foreseeable future.
“The demand exceeds our capacities by a great deal,” said Heiko Ganss, head of precious metal company Pro Aurum.
“The requests cannot be satisfied right now,” a dealer from the Düsseldorf WGZ Bank confirmed.
“Demand for gold as a conservative investment has risen dramatically,” said stephan Henkel. “right now the demand is about 10 times as high as in normal times.”
Gold deliveries now take between four and six weeks.
The US mint said on Monday it had exhausted some of its supply of bullion coins and was struggling to meet demand for gold, silver and platinum.
South Africa’s Rand Refinery, producer of the world’s most popular gold bullion coin, the Krugerrand, temporarily ran out of the coins in August.
Londoners Queue-Up on Sidewalk to Buy Gold in Rush for Money Haven
Bloomberg
October 9, 2008
Londoners stood in line outside the largest gold coin and bar retailer in the city’s West End shopping district, clogging the lobby and trading among themselves as they sought a safe haven for their money.
“People want something tangible, something they can hold on to, something the banks can’t give them,” said Chris Burrow, the owner of ATS Bullion, the gold dealer in the Strand that traces its roots back to the 17th century. “There’s no time to breathe. We’re rushed off our feet. Staff are exhausted.”
As U.K. stocks tumbled to a five-year low, paced by financial-services companies, gold advanced. Since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s Sept. 15 filing for bankruptcy protection, exacerbating the worldwide credit crisis, gold for immediate delivery has jumped 19 percent.
“Investors are rushing to safe havens and physical gold seems to be the favorite one,” said Frederic Panizzutti, a senior vice president at MKS Finance, one of Switzerland’s four bullion refiners.
British government action to prop up the banking industry has failed to reassure investors. The U.K. on Oct. 8 promised 50 billion pounds ($86 billion) of capital to banks, the same day the Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point. Last month, the government brokered a takeover of HBOS Plc, Britain’s largest mortgage lender, and seized control of Bradford & Bingley’s mortgage division.
Austria Witnesses New Gold Rush
BBC
October 12, 2008
The financial crisis is prompting people to look for safer forms of investment than stocks and shares.
The interest in gold coins is so great that many of the world’s major mints are struggling to keep up with demand, including the Austrian Mint, which produces the Vienna Philharmonic – one of the best-selling bullion coins worldwide.
Sales of Vienna Philharmonic gold coins have gone up by more than 230% since last year.
Kerry Tattersall, the director of marketing at the mint, says production has gone into overdrive.
“We are running at present something like three shifts on all of the machines, on the presses, producing both gold and the silver bullion coins.
Read Full Article Here
Central banks all but stop lending gold
Javier Blas
Financial Times
October 8, 2008
Central banks have all but stopped lending gold to commercial and investment banks and other participants in the precious metals market, in a move that on Tuesday sent the cost of borrowing bullion for one-month to more than twenty times its usual level.
The one-month gold lease rate rocketed to 2.649 per cent, its highest level since May 2001 and significantly above its five-year average of 0.12 per cent, according to data from the London Bullion Market Association.
Gold lease rates for two, three, and six months and for a year also jumped to levels not seen in the last seven years.
Traders said the jump reflects the fact that central banks — mostly European — have almost completely stopped lending gold in the last few days and are not rolling forward old leases after maturity. This is because of fears that some borrowers might not repay their bullion loans if they are engulfed by the financial crisis.
“A number of central banks have been cutting back on their gold lending,” said Tom Kendall, a precious metals strategist at Mitsubishi in London.
John Reade, a commodities strategist at UBS, added that there had been a lot of talk about some central banks being unwilling to lend their gold because of a redoubled focus on the risk of borrowers not returning it.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/99680-..ces-tell-two-different-gold-stories
Blatant Banker Manipulation Of Gold Prices
http://www.prisonplanet.com/blatant-banker-manipulation-of-gold-prices.html
No Mass Mania for Gold Yet – Less than 1% of Public in Western World Have Invested in Gold
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1224161100.php
Spot Gold Price Is Now Meaningless
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle%2Barticleid_2713209.html
Gold expected to rally above $1000 in Q1 2009
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/b..o-rally-above-1000-in-q1-2009.aspx
What the Pros Say: All that Glitters is Gold
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27095525
Kiener: Gold Prices To Double On Paper Market Default
http://www.prisonplanet.com/kiener-..o-double-on-paper-market-default.html
Filed under: AIG, bankruptcy, bernanke, Big Banks, Central Banks, CNN, Cold War, Congress, corporatism, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Dictatorship, Dollar, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, Empire, Euro, fannie mae, Fascism, FDIC, Federal Reserve, foreign aid, freddie mac, George Bush, georgia, glenn beck, global economy, gold, Goldman Sachs, Great Depression, Greenback, henry paulson, House, housing market, hyperinflation, Inflation, Lehman Brothers, liquidation, Media, middle class, Military, morgan stanley, mortgage, mortgage companies, mortgage lenders, nationalization, Nazi, Paulson, real estate, Ron Paul, Russia, Senate, silver, Stock Market, subprime, subprime lending, Taxpayers, US Constitution, US Economy, US Treasury, Wall Street, war funding, WW3, ww4 | Tags: john roberts, run on banks
Ron Paul: This Bailout Won’t Be the Last
Ron Paul on CNN w/ John Roberts
Ron Paul Blasts “Secret Government” Running Economy
Filed under: bankruptcy, bear sterns, Big Banks, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, FDIC, global economy, Great Depression, Greenback, housing market, hyperinflation, Inflation, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, mortgage, mortgage companies, mortgage lenders, real estate, Stock Market, subprime, subprime lending, US Economy, Wall Street | Tags: Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., run on banks
Lehman Brothers Bank Files For Bankruptcy
AP
September 15, 2008
Lehman Brothers, a 158-year-old investment bank choked by the credit crisis and falling real estate values, filed for Chapter 11 protection in the biggest bankruptcy filing ever on Monday and said it was trying to sell off key business units.
The filing was made in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of New York by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the bank’s holding company. The case had been assigned to Judge James M. Peck.
Lehman fell under the weight of $60 billion in soured real estate holdings, and the credit market’s dislocation ultimately forced it to seek court protection. The credit crisis has caused global banks to write down more than $300 billion in asset value since last year, and caused the shotgun sales of Merrill Lynch & Co. and Bear Stearns Cos.
Lehman’s bankruptcy filing marks the end of a Wall Street firm that started the U.S. cotton trade before the Civil War and financed the railroads that built a nation.
Filed under: Alan Greenspan, Argentina, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Australia, Big Banks, brazil, California, carlyle group, Chicago, Cintra, consolidation, Credit Crisis, Credit Suisse, DEBT, ecnomic collapse, economic depression, Economy, florida, food prices, foreign buyout, foreign investors, global economy, gold, Goldman Sachs, Great Depression, Greenback, hyperinflation, Inflation, infrastructure, JPMorgan, Lehman Brothers, liquidation, morgan stanley, privatization, South America, spain, Stock Market, tax, Taxpayers, Toll Roads, US Economy | Tags: highways, indiana toll road, infrastructure transactions, investing, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, Krugerrands, Macquarie, Midway Airport, Pennsylvania Turnpike, roads, run on banks, skyway
Cities Debate Privatizing Public Infrastructure
NY Times
August 29, 2008
Cleaning up road kill and maintaining runways may not sound like cutting-edge investments. But banks and funds with big money seem to think so.
Reeling from more exotic investments that imploded during the credit crisis, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the Carlyle Group, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse are among the investors who have amassed an estimated $250 billion war chest — much of it raised in the last two years — to finance a tidal wave of infrastructure projects in the United States and overseas.
Their strategy is gaining steam in the United States as federal, state and local governments previously wary of private funds struggle under mounting deficits that have curbed their ability to improve crumbling roads, bridges and even airports with taxpayer money.
With politicians like Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California warning of a national infrastructure crisis, public resistance to private financing may start to ease.
“Budget gaps are starting to increase the viability of public-private partnerships,” said Norman Y. Mineta, a former secretary of transportation who was recently hired by Credit Suisse as a senior adviser to such deals.
This fall, Midway Airport of Chicago could become the first to pass into the hands of private investors. Just outside the nation’s capital, a $1.9 billion public-private partnership will finance new high-occupancy toll lanes around Washington. This week, Florida gave the green light to six groups that included JPMorgan, Lehman Brothers and the Carlyle Group to bid for a 50- to 75 -year lease on Alligator Alley, a toll road known for sightings of sleeping alligators that stretches 78 miles down I-75 in South Florida.
Until recently, the use of private funds to build and manage large-scale American infrastructure assets was slow to take root. States and towns could raise taxes and user fees or turn to the municipal bond market.
Americans have also been wary of foreign investors, who were among the first to this market, taking over their prized roads and bridges. When Macquarie of Australia and Cintra of Spain, two foreign funds with large portfolios of international investments, snapped up leases to the Chicago Skyway and the Indiana Toll Road, “people said ‘hold it, we don’t want our infrastructure owned by foreigners,’ ” Mr. Mineta said.
And then there is the odd romance between Americans and their roads: they do not want anyone other than the government owning them. The specter of investors reaping huge fees by financing assets like the Pennsylvania Turnpike also touches a raw nerve among taxpayers, who already feel they are paying top dollar for the government to maintain roads and bridges.
And with good reason: Private investors recoup their money by maximizing revenue — either making the infrastructure better to allow for more cars, for example, or by raising tolls. (Concession agreements dictate everything from toll increases to the amount of time dead animals can remain on the road before being cleared.)
Politicians have often supported the civic outcry: in the spring of 2007, James L. Oberstar of Minnesota, chairman of the House Committees on Transportation and Infrastructure, warned that his panel would “work to undo” any public-private partnership deals that failed to protect the public interest.
And labor unions have been quick to point out that investment funds stand to reap handsome fees from the crisis in infrastructure. “Our concern is that some sources of financing see this as a quick opportunity to make money,” Stephen Abrecht, director of the Capital Stewardship Program at the Service Employees International Union, said.
But in a world in which governments view infrastructure as a way to manage growth and raise productivity through the efficient movement of goods and people, an eroding economy has forced politicians to take another look.
“There’s a huge opportunity that the U.S. public sector is in danger of losing,” says Markus J. Pressdee, head of infrastructure investment banking at Credit Suisse. “It thinks there is a boatload of capital and when it is politically convenient it will be able to take advantage of it. But the capital is going into infrastructure assets available today around the world, and not waiting for projects the U.S., the public sector, may sponsor in the future.”
Traditionally, the federal government played a major role in developing the nation’s transportation backbone: Thomas Jefferson built canals and roads in the 1800s, Theodore Roosevelt expanded power generation in the early 1900s. In the 1950s Dwight Eisenhower oversaw the building of the interstate highway system.
But since the early 1990s, the United States has had no comprehensive transportation development, and responsibilities were pushed off to states, municipalities and metropolitan planning organizations. “Look at the physical neglect — crumbling bridges, the issue of energy security, environmental concerns,” said Robert Puentes of the Brookings Institution. “It’s more relevant than ever and we have no vision.”
The American Society of Civil Engineers estimates that the United States needs to invest at least $1.6 trillion over the next five years to maintain and expand its infrastructure. Last year, the Federal Highway Administration deemed 72,000 bridges, or more than 12 percent of the country’s total, “structurally deficient.” But the funds to fix them are shrinking: by the end of this year, the Highway Trust Fund will have a several billion dollar deficit.
“We are facing an infrastructure crisis in this country that threatens our status as an economic superpower, and threatens the health and safety of the people we serve,” New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg told Congress this year. In January he joined forces with Mr. Schwarzenegger and Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania to start a nonprofit group to raise awareness about the problem.
Some American pension funds see an investment opportunity. “Our infrastructure is crumbling, from bridges in Minnesota to our airports and freeways,” said Christopher Ailman, the head of the California State Teachers’ Retirement System. His board recently authorized up to about $800 million to invest in infrastructure projects. Nearby, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, with coffers totaling $234 billion, has earmarked $7 billion for infrastructure investments through 2010. The Washington State Investment Board has allocated 5 percent of its fund to such investments.
Some foreign pension funds that jumped into the game early have already reaped rewards: The $52 billion Ontario Municipal Employee Retirement System saw a 12.4 percent return last year on a $5 billion infrastructure investment pool, above the benchmark 9.9 percent though down from 14 percent in 2006.
“People are creating a new asset class,” said Anne Valentine Andrews, head of portfolio strategy at Morgan Stanley Infrastructure. “You can see and understand the businesses involved — for example, ships come into the port, unload containers, reload containers and leave,” she said. “There’s no black box.”
The prospect of steady returns has drawn high-flying investors like Kohlberg Kravis and Morgan Stanley to the table. “Ten to 20 years from now infrastructure could be larger than real estate,” said Mark Weisdorf, head of infrastructure investments at JPMorgan. In 2006 and 2007, more than $500 billion worth of commercial real estate deals were done.
The pace of recent work is encouraging, says Robert Poole, director of transportation studies at the Reason Foundation, pointing to projects like the high-occupancy toll, or HOT, lanes outside Washington. “The fact that the private sector raised $1.4 billion for the Beltway project shows that even projects like HOT lanes that are considered high risk can be developed and financed privately and that has huge implications for other large metro areas,” he said .
Yet if the flow of money is fast, the return on these investments can be a waiting game. Washington’s HOT lanes project took six years to build after Fluor Enterprises, one of the two private companies financing part of the project, made an unsolicited bid in 2002. The privatization of Chicago’s Midway Airport was part of a pilot program adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration in 1996 to allow five domestic airports to be privatized. Twelve years later only one airport has met that goal — Stewart International Airport in Newburgh, N.Y. — and it was sold back to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.
For many politicians, privatization also remains a painful process. Mitch Daniels, the governor of Indiana, faced a severe backlash when he collected $3.8 billion for a 75- year lease of the Indiana Toll Road. A popular bumper sticker in Indiana reads “Keep the toll road, lease Mitch.”
Joe Dear, executive director of the Washington State Investment Board, still wonders how quickly governments will move. “Will all public agencies think it’s worth the extra return private capital will demand?” he asked. “That’s unclear.”
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Filed under: bear sterns, bernanke, Big Banks, Britain, central bank, China, Credit Crisis, DEBT, dollar peg, Dow, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, Europe, Federal Reserve, food prices, gas prices, gas tax, global economy, gold, Great Depression, Greenback, housing market, imf, Inflation, interest rate cut, interest rate cuts, job market, Lehman Brothers, Oil, OPEC, Paulson, Petrol, rate cut, Stock Market, subprime, subprime lending, tax, tax rebates, United Kingdom, US Economy, Venezuela, yuan | Tags: John Lipsky, Nigel Gault
America is ALREADY in recession, say top economic global experts – and that spells trouble for the UK
Daily Mail
March 21, 2008
Experts have accused the International Monetary Fund of “driving the car using the rear view mirror” after the global body warned the U.S. was on the verge of a recession.
The world’s biggest economy is already in a recession, they claim, as a draft version of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook declared the U.S. economy is “very weak”. Nigel Gault, chief US economist at Global Insight, a worldwide economic forecasting and consultancy firm, said he believed the US was in recession already – and that spelt problems for other countries, including the UK.
He said: “The US has, for years, been the primary motor for growth in the global economy. However, now consumer spending in the US has seen a downturn, the tables are turned, and the US is looking to the rest of the world for support, through strong export growth, and cutting imports.
“This is happening, US exports are doing extremely well, but it’s not enough to keep the economy out of recession.
“We do not expect to see the problems in the housing market in the US bottoming out before 2009, and while spending will be helped by tax rebates to be given this summer, that may give only temporary relief, and in the first quarter next year growth may dip back close to zero.
“The longer either the recession or period of weak growth goes on, the longer the US market is going to be weak, and very difficult for anybody trying to sell goods to it.”
Jeremy Batstone, head of research at stockbrokers Charles Stanley, said the IMF “has a history of driving the car using the rear view mirror”.
He added: “For the whole of 2007, it was not looking through the windscreen, it was merely reporting what the prevailing economic data releases were telling it.
“This report suggests nothing has changed, the IMF using backward-looking data is taking the view that the US economy might be in recession.
“Recent economic releases make it entirely clear that the US economy is already in recession, it’s confirmed by diverse economic statistics, including retail sales, sharply falling house prices, rising unemployment, deteriorating industrial production and manufacturing output.
“The 64,000-dollar question, indeed the 64-trillion dollar question, is not what happened in the first quarter, but what might happen in the second quarter, and beyond that.
“The hope among economists is that radical action by the US Federal Reserve might be enough to nip this crisis in the bud, and maybe there can be gradual recovery in the second quarter of the year, but at the moment we just don’t know.
“I do find myself becoming a little more hopeful, as the hour is darkest before the dawn. Just maybe radical action will prove that in the second quarter – or the third quarter if we are unlucky – that the storm abates.”
The draft version of the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook concluded the US economy “remains very weak, certainly close to a possible recession”.
The report is due to be published ahead of a meeting next month, and was leaked to Italian news agency Ansa.
The verdict comes after the cash crisis and cut-price rescue of troubled US investment bank Bear Stearns sent markets plummeting at the beginning of the week.
The Federal Reserve, the US central bank, dropped its main interest rate by three quarter-points on Wednesday – the latest in a series of cuts which have seen the rate trimmed by 2 per cent in the first three months of this year – and 3 per cent since the credit crunch first erupted in global markets last August.
The moves come as the Fed attempts to rescue the world’s biggest economy from the brink of recession and ease the pressure on the banking system.
IMF: Think The Unthinkable
CNBC
March 19, 2008
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) today warned authorities worldwide to “think the unthinkable” in planning to cope with a mounting crisis in the global financial system.
John Lipsky, IMF first deputy managing director, called for “decisive policy action” amid a credit crunch that stems from the US real estate meltdown and is spreading throughout the financial markets.
The coordinated actions by the US Federal Reserve and other global central banks on Tuesday to further pump billions of dollars of liquidity into financial markets were “helpful” but stronger measures may be necessary.
Policy actions worldwide to date “may not prove to be adequate” to deal with the “low-probability but high-impact events” that may materialize and undermine global financial stability, Lipsky said in an address at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington think tank.
“Policy makers as a matter of course need to ’think the unthinkable,’ and to consider how they would plan to react if contingencies arise. The need to prepare more systematically for potential risks has been demonstrated amply during the past few months,” he said.
“By now, there is little doubt that risks of further escalation of this crisis are rising and decisive policy action will be required to put the global financial system and economy on a firmer footing.” He said the first priority was to reverse the spreading strains in global financial markets and to restore the normal functioning of the financial system in advanced economies.
If contingent risks materialize, the central banks together with financial supervisors and regulators will be the first line of defence. The second line of defence lies with fiscal authorities. Finally, public intervention will be considered as a third line of defence, Lipsky said. The IMF “stands ready to use its record liquidity if needed to help cushion the global economy,” Lipsky said, adding, “we must keep all options on the table.”
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Filed under: Alan Greenspan, Credit Crisis, DEBT, Economic Collapse, economic depression, Economy, Federal Reserve, Goldman Sachs, Great Depression, Greenback, Inflation, interest rate cuts, jim rogers, Lehman Brothers, Martin Feldstein, Merrill Lynch, rate cut, Stock Market, US Economy, US Treasury
Goldman Sachs sees recession in 2008
Reuters
January 9, 2008
Goldman Sachs on Wednesday said it expects the U.S. economy to drop into recession this year, prompting the Federal Reserve to slash benchmark lending rates to 2.5 percent by the third quarter.
In a note to clients, Goldman said real gross domestic product would contract by 1 percent on an annualized basis in both the second and third quarters. For all of 2008, the investment bank said GDP would rise by 0.8 percent.
The unemployment rate will rise to 6.5 percent in 2009 from the current 5 percent, it said.
The weakening economy will force the Fed to lower policy rates by an additional 1.75 percentage points from the current 4.25 percent. Starting in September, the Fed cut rates at the last three meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee, reducing the target rate on loans between banks by 1 percentage point from 5.25 percent.
Merrill Lynch: Recession “Has Arrived”
BBC
January 8, 2008
The feared recession in the US economy has already arrived, according to a report from Merrill Lynch.
It said that Friday’s employment report, which sent shares tumbling worldwide, confirmed that the US is in the first month of a recession.
Its view is controversial, with banks such as Lehman Brothers disagreeing.
An official ruling on whether the US is in recession is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, but this decision may not come for two years.
The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months”.
It bases its assessment on final figures on employment, personal income, industrial production and sales activity in the manufacturing and retail sectors.
Merrill Lynch said that the figures showing the jobless rate hitting 5% in December were the final piece in that puzzle.
“According to our analysis, this isn’t even a forecast any more but is a present day reality,” the report said.
It added that the current consensus view on Wall Street that there is a good chance of avoiding a recession is “in denial”.
It also objected to the use of euphemistic terms for the state of the economy.
“To say that the backdrop is ‘recession like’ is akin to an obstetrician telling a woman that she is ‘sort of pregnant’,” the report said.
National Bureau of Economic Research: “Odds Of Recession More Than 50%”
Bloomberg
January 7, 2008
Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, head of the group that dates U.S. economic cycles, said the odds of a recession have risen to more than 50 percent after a report showing unemployment jumped in December.
“We are now talking about more likely than not,” Feldstein, president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, said in an interview in New Orleans two days ago. “I have been saying about 50 percent. This now pushes it up a bit above that.”
The jobless rate rose to 5 percent in December, the highest in two years, from 4.7 percent in November, a government report showed last week. Payrolls rose by 18,000, the least since August 2003.
The U.S. economic expansion is cooling after a third- quarter surge as the housing slump enters its third year and consumer spending slows. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and ex-Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers are among those raising the prospect of a recession.
The increase in unemployment will hurt consumer confidence, Feldstein said in the interview. He was in New Orleans to speak at an economics panel discussion on productivity that was part of the annual meeting of the Allied Social Science Associations.
“Consumers, with essentially no growth in jobs in December, are going to be more nervous about the future,” said Feldstein, 68. “They are going to be a little more reluctant to spend, and that is going to put a further drag on growth in 2008.”
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