noworldsystem.com


Cities Debate Privatizing Public Infrastructure

Cities Debate Privatizing Public Infrastructure

NY Times
August 29, 2008

Cleaning up road kill and maintaining runways may not sound like cutting-edge investments. But banks and funds with big money seem to think so.

Reeling from more exotic investments that imploded during the credit crisis, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, the Carlyle Group, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse are among the investors who have amassed an estimated $250 billion war chest — much of it raised in the last two years — to finance a tidal wave of infrastructure projects in the United States and overseas.

Their strategy is gaining steam in the United States as federal, state and local governments previously wary of private funds struggle under mounting deficits that have curbed their ability to improve crumbling roads, bridges and even airports with taxpayer money.

With politicians like Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California warning of a national infrastructure crisis, public resistance to private financing may start to ease.

“Budget gaps are starting to increase the viability of public-private partnerships,” said Norman Y. Mineta, a former secretary of transportation who was recently hired by Credit Suisse as a senior adviser to such deals.

This fall, Midway Airport of Chicago could become the first to pass into the hands of private investors. Just outside the nation’s capital, a $1.9 billion public-private partnership will finance new high-occupancy toll lanes around Washington. This week, Florida gave the green light to six groups that included JPMorgan, Lehman Brothers and the Carlyle Group to bid for a 50- to 75 -year lease on Alligator Alley, a toll road known for sightings of sleeping alligators that stretches 78 miles down I-75 in South Florida.

Until recently, the use of private funds to build and manage large-scale American infrastructure assets was slow to take root. States and towns could raise taxes and user fees or turn to the municipal bond market.

Americans have also been wary of foreign investors, who were among the first to this market, taking over their prized roads and bridges. When Macquarie of Australia and Cintra of Spain, two foreign funds with large portfolios of international investments, snapped up leases to the Chicago Skyway and the Indiana Toll Road, “people said ‘hold it, we don’t want our infrastructure owned by foreigners,’ ” Mr. Mineta said.

And then there is the odd romance between Americans and their roads: they do not want anyone other than the government owning them. The specter of investors reaping huge fees by financing assets like the Pennsylvania Turnpike also touches a raw nerve among taxpayers, who already feel they are paying top dollar for the government to maintain roads and bridges.

And with good reason: Private investors recoup their money by maximizing revenue — either making the infrastructure better to allow for more cars, for example, or by raising tolls. (Concession agreements dictate everything from toll increases to the amount of time dead animals can remain on the road before being cleared.)

Politicians have often supported the civic outcry: in the spring of 2007, James L. Oberstar of Minnesota, chairman of the House Committees on Transportation and Infrastructure, warned that his panel would “work to undo” any public-private partnership deals that failed to protect the public interest.

And labor unions have been quick to point out that investment funds stand to reap handsome fees from the crisis in infrastructure. “Our concern is that some sources of financing see this as a quick opportunity to make money,” Stephen Abrecht, director of the Capital Stewardship Program at the Service Employees International Union, said.

But in a world in which governments view infrastructure as a way to manage growth and raise productivity through the efficient movement of goods and people, an eroding economy has forced politicians to take another look.

“There’s a huge opportunity that the U.S. public sector is in danger of losing,” says Markus J. Pressdee, head of infrastructure investment banking at Credit Suisse. “It thinks there is a boatload of capital and when it is politically convenient it will be able to take advantage of it. But the capital is going into infrastructure assets available today around the world, and not waiting for projects the U.S., the public sector, may sponsor in the future.”

Traditionally, the federal government played a major role in developing the nation’s transportation backbone: Thomas Jefferson built canals and roads in the 1800s, Theodore Roosevelt expanded power generation in the early 1900s. In the 1950s Dwight Eisenhower oversaw the building of the interstate highway system.

But since the early 1990s, the United States has had no comprehensive transportation development, and responsibilities were pushed off to states, municipalities and metropolitan planning organizations. “Look at the physical neglect — crumbling bridges, the issue of energy security, environmental concerns,” said Robert Puentes of the Brookings Institution. “It’s more relevant than ever and we have no vision.”

The American Society of Civil Engineers estimates that the United States needs to invest at least $1.6 trillion over the next five years to maintain and expand its infrastructure. Last year, the Federal Highway Administration deemed 72,000 bridges, or more than 12 percent of the country’s total, “structurally deficient.” But the funds to fix them are shrinking: by the end of this year, the Highway Trust Fund will have a several billion dollar deficit.

“We are facing an infrastructure crisis in this country that threatens our status as an economic superpower, and threatens the health and safety of the people we serve,” New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg told Congress this year. In January he joined forces with Mr. Schwarzenegger and Gov. Edward G. Rendell of Pennsylvania to start a nonprofit group to raise awareness about the problem.

Some American pension funds see an investment opportunity. “Our infrastructure is crumbling, from bridges in Minnesota to our airports and freeways,” said Christopher Ailman, the head of the California State Teachers’ Retirement System. His board recently authorized up to about $800 million to invest in infrastructure projects. Nearby, the California Public Employees’ Retirement System, with coffers totaling $234 billion, has earmarked $7 billion for infrastructure investments through 2010. The Washington State Investment Board has allocated 5 percent of its fund to such investments.

Some foreign pension funds that jumped into the game early have already reaped rewards: The $52 billion Ontario Municipal Employee Retirement System saw a 12.4 percent return last year on a $5 billion infrastructure investment pool, above the benchmark 9.9 percent though down from 14 percent in 2006.

“People are creating a new asset class,” said Anne Valentine Andrews, head of portfolio strategy at Morgan Stanley Infrastructure. “You can see and understand the businesses involved — for example, ships come into the port, unload containers, reload containers and leave,” she said. “There’s no black box.”

The prospect of steady returns has drawn high-flying investors like Kohlberg Kravis and Morgan Stanley to the table. “Ten to 20 years from now infrastructure could be larger than real estate,” said Mark Weisdorf, head of infrastructure investments at JPMorgan. In 2006 and 2007, more than $500 billion worth of commercial real estate deals were done.

The pace of recent work is encouraging, says Robert Poole, director of transportation studies at the Reason Foundation, pointing to projects like the high-occupancy toll, or HOT, lanes outside Washington. “The fact that the private sector raised $1.4 billion for the Beltway project shows that even projects like HOT lanes that are considered high risk can be developed and financed privately and that has huge implications for other large metro areas,” he said .

Yet if the flow of money is fast, the return on these investments can be a waiting game. Washington’s HOT lanes project took six years to build after Fluor Enterprises, one of the two private companies financing part of the project, made an unsolicited bid in 2002. The privatization of Chicago’s Midway Airport was part of a pilot program adopted by the Federal Aviation Administration in 1996 to allow five domestic airports to be privatized. Twelve years later only one airport has met that goal — Stewart International Airport in Newburgh, N.Y. — and it was sold back to the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.

For many politicians, privatization also remains a painful process. Mitch Daniels, the governor of Indiana, faced a severe backlash when he collected $3.8 billion for a 75- year lease of the Indiana Toll Road. A popular bumper sticker in Indiana reads “Keep the toll road, lease Mitch.”

Joe Dear, executive director of the Washington State Investment Board, still wonders how quickly governments will move. “Will all public agencies think it’s worth the extra return private capital will demand?” he asked. “That’s unclear.”

Recent News:

Lehman tumbles as uncertainty grows
http://in.us.biz.yahoo.com/ap/080908/lehman_brothers_mover.html?.v=1

Gold Refiner Runs Out of Gold Krugerrands
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=acH4WhPh1WJ0&refer=commodities

Greenspan: Don’t use Fed as a ‘magical piggy bank’
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080905/D930B0EG1.html

Economic downturn worst in ‘60 years’
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/itn/20080830/tuk..-worst-in-60-years-dba1618.html

Brazil, Argentina to eliminate US dollar
http://www.prisonplan…0in%20their%20bilateral%20trade.%20

Food prices rise at the fastest rate on record
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/..ney/2008/09/08/bcnfood108.xml

Gold Falls Below $800 Again
http://www.nas..=&link=&headlinereturnpage=http://www.international.nasd

Incomes Of Americans Plunge
http://ap.google.com..sanM66tszKz1zFq0LOG4XvWS7zAD92RV0M00

World’s Richest Got Richer Last Year
http://news.yahoo.com/s/..=AuoqxJH_m6x1CtrZ5.D1n_gXIr0F

Oil nears $100 a barrel ahead of Opec meeting
U.K. House Prices Fall as Sales Drop to Record Low
Greenspan: Don’t use Fed as a ‘magical piggy bank’
China central bank may need government bailout

U.S. Economic Collapse News Archive

 



U.S. Taxpayers to pay for Wall Street Banking Collapse

U.S. Taxpayers to pay for Wall Street Banking Collapse

WSWS
July 10, 2008

In speeches delivered Tuesday, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson outlined the ruthless class policy being carried out to place the burden for the financial and housing crisis on the backs of working people.

Bernanke indicated that the Fed would extend its policy of offering unlimited loans to major Wall Street investment banks. The provision of Fed funds to non-commercial banks and brokerage firms, a departure from the Fed’s legal mandate without precedent since the Great Depression, is part of a policy of bailing out the banking system to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. The Fed announced its loan program for investment banks last March when it dispensed $29 billion to JPMorgan Chase as part of a rescue operation to prevent the collapse of Bear Stearns.

In his speech, Treasury Secretary Paulson acknowledged that home foreclosures in 2007 reached 1.5 million and predicted another 2.5 million homes would be foreclosed in 2008. But he made clear that nothing would be done to save the vast majority of distressed homeowners from being thrown onto the street.

Paulson, the former CEO of Goldman Sachs, said that “many of today’s unusually high number of foreclosures are not preventable.” With a callous indifference reminiscent of Marie Antoinette’s “Let them eat cake,” he went on to say that “some people took out mortgages they can’t possibly afford and they will lose their homes. There is little public policymakers can, or should, do to compensate for untenable financial decisions.”

In other words, low-income home owners who were lured into high-interest mortgages by predatory mortgage companies and banks are getting their just deserts! Of course, the Wall Street CEOs and big investors who made billions of dollars by speculating on these loans, creating a vast edifice of fictitious capital that was bound to collapse, are not to be held accountable for any “untenable financial decisions.” On the contrary, they are to be subsidized with hundreds of billions of dollars of credit, ultimately to be paid for by public funds.

The two speeches, presented at a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation forum on the housing crisis held in Virginia, underscore the real social interests—those of the financial aristocracy—that are being protected by the policies of the Fed, the Bush administration, and the Democratic Congress.

Bernanke made clear that his call for an extension of loans to big investment banks is part of a more comprehensive proposal to systemize and regularize federal subsidies and bailouts for troubled banking giants. Particularly significant was the following remark: “Because the resolution of a failing securities firm might have fiscal implications, it would be appropriate for the Treasury to take a leading role in any such process, in consultation with the firm’s regulator and other authorities.” The implication is that the US Treasury should be ready to fund bank bail-outs with whatever taxpayer funds are necessary.

In neither speech was there even a hint that the government has any responsibility to protect home owners, or that the people responsible for the “lax credit and underwriting standards” that led to the current crisis might be called to account by regulators, Congress, or the courts.

 



Market bears’ gloomy growl being echoed by big players

Market bears’ gloomy growl being echoed by big players

Chicago Tribune
December 2, 2007

Henry Van der Eb has run a mutual fund designed to weather financial disaster since the 1970s, continually preparing for the worst even as stock prices mostly soared.

Now he senses the times turning in his favor, and while he isn’t wishing hardship on anybody, some of Wall Street’s biggest and most respected players are echoing his gloomy cry.

Merrill Lynch last week issued a series of research reports warning of “pre-recession” conditions, even as stock prices first plunged, then soared. Goldman Sachs predicted housing woes would be “considerably worse than we originally anticipated.” And giant European bank Societe Generale warned risks are “growing rather than receding.”

For the first time in years, Van der Eb and his fellow “bears,” as the market’s perpetual doomsayers are known, were enjoying high-powered company.

By the end of the week, however, the bleak forecasts had been offset by the promise of U.S. central bankers riding to the rescue with a series of interest-rate cuts aimed at bringing about a soft landing for the sagging economy. In a speech Thursday evening, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke promised to be “exceptionally alert and flexible.” Relieved investors bid the market higher in the expectation of further rate cuts beginning when Fed policymakers meet Dec. 11.

Van der Eb, manager of the Gamco Mathers Fund in north suburban Bannockburn, was unmoved. Fed action is no cure for the “reckless lending” that’s weighing on the markets today, he declared. “At some point, the rhetoric can’t keep overriding the fundamentals. You can’t create perpetual prosperity on debt.”

Waiting for stocks to plunge is a lonely business, and while last week’s volatile ups and downs clearly reflect unsettled times, they also illustrate the near-impossible task of predicting the market’s direction. For every Cassandra convinced the retreat of credit markets will take down the broader economy, an optimist points to the boom in U.S. exports brought about by the falling dollar, or to a Fed chairman eagerly resisting any sudden downturns.

As Morgan Stanley analyst Gerard Minack noted, “Most investors still expect the U.S. to land softly. Notwithstanding the jitters of the past few weeks, equity markets do not appear to me to be pricing in anything worse.”

While many analysts are forecasting just such a soft landing, the typical bear is betting against it, more visibly than at any time in years.

Anyone curious about the worst-case-scenario for the economy can find it at their local bookstore, where sky-is-falling analyses have been writ large in 2007 titles such as “Financial Armageddon” and “Crash Proof.”

Stock-market pessimists such as David Tice, manager of the Prudent Bear mutual fund, have become familiar voices to anyone paying attention to the financial media. “We’re as confident as we’ve ever been that the wheels have come off,” said Tice, expressing a sentiment reflecting his views for some time now. “We’re sad for the country.”

‘Revolution’ on horizon?
Ravi Batra, among the most bearish of bears, expects nothing less than a popular uprising against “moneyed interests preventing reform” and, eventually, “a revolution.”

The polite, soft-spoken economics professor from Southern Methodist University is no stranger to such alarmist ideas, and Batra says he’s “logging a lot of interviews” these days. He also has a new book, “The New Golden Age,” its optimistic title referring to the period that supposedly will follow the bedlam he foresees over the next five years.

Batra achieved fleeting glory when his book, “The Great Depression of 1990,” became a best seller in the aftermath of the 1987 stock market crash. And while the Dow Jones industrial average has gained more than 10,000 points in the years since, Batra has seen calamity lurking around the corner pretty much all along.

The only reason his predictions weren’t spot on, he said, is because he underestimated America’s capacity for debt. But he has no doubt the end is near: “American consumers can’t borrow any more,” he said. “That game is over.”

Perhaps chastened by the economic staying power that has defied their expectations in the past, neither Van der Eb, Tice nor even the far-out Batra predicts an imminent crash. Tice comes closest: “It may rally short-term. But we’ve started the bear market, and it’s going to go a lot lower.”

Predictably, Tice emphasizes the falling housing market and mortgage crisis. He expects Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-backed mortgage companies, to fall into disarray. And he sees an enormous hangover from the boom in structured finance. “We’re in the first inning of this thing,” he warned.

Van der Eb considers it premature to declare a full-blown bust in the making. “It’s probably too soon to say it’s going to be the big one,” he said. But trouble looms in bad-credit problems that “really dwarf” the dot-com bubble of 2000, he noted. “We’re headed toward the open water here, and we’ll just have to see how bad the waves get.”

Of course, those negative vibes belie the fact stock prices recovered sharply last week. On Monday, all looked bleak as the Dow Jones industrial average fell 237 points, bringing its decline from mid-October past the 10 percent threshold that signifies a correction. Though benchmarks differ, a “bear market” typically becomes official after a 20 percent decline, and the drop can be far sharper: During the dot-com collapse earlier this decade, large-capitalization stocks lost roughly half their value from the peak in 2000 before bouncing back.

If another drubbing is due, it was difficult to tell from the way the market shook off its Monday blues to post its biggest weekly gain in two months.

Not only did Bernanke signal a willingness to cut interest rates, but the Treasury moved closer to a plan to help Americans avert mortgage foreclosures.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. led financial shares to their best weekly gain in four years. Home builders rallied the most in seven years on Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s plan to buoy their market. For the week, the Dow rose 3 percent, the Nasdaq 2.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 2.8 percent.

Even bad news, such as a government report Friday showing that incomes and spending rose less in October than economists had forecast, merely boosted the confidence of investors that Fed policymakers would be cutting rates sharply for months to come.

The long-distance stock-market bear takes such rosy appraisals in stride.

Tice, for one, scoffs at “everybody who says it is time to buy every time the Fed cuts rates.” The bear market won’t unfold by moving straight down, he predicted. “You’ll have one-day rallies that give hope this is the time to buy.”

But don’t fall into the trap, Tice asserted: “People just ought to get out.”

 



Who Expects 4-Digit Gold and Why!

Who Expects 4-Digit Gold and Why!
Over forty economists finally agree on something

Swiss America
October 19, 2007

The commodity super-cycle has swept gold prices to nearly triple since 2001 — but that’s just the kickoff say the experts.

How high will this bull market in “real money” and commodities drive gold prices over the next 5 to 15 years? Get ready to be shocked!

Gold prices have grown about $100/oz. per year since 2003. Gold was $300 in ’03, $400 in ’04, $500 in ’05, $600 in ’06 and now $750 in ’07. Savvy investors and gold experts see $800 gold in 2008!

Recently many analysts have jumped onto the $1,000/oz. plus gold bandwagon — most of whom were not considered “gold bugs” in the past, like Citibank and JP Morgan & Co.

Here’s a list of forty-two prominent analysts, authors and gold experts already on the record forecasting four-digit gold prices to arrive in the years ahead. Their combined gold price expectation is $2,000/oz. gold!

Count for yourself the dozens of good reasons for owning gold today, which these experts suggest will drive gold prices sky high. I’ve listed two dozen reasons at the conclusion.

Read Full Article Here

 



Carroll Quigley: Our Tragedy and Their Hope

Carroll Quigley: Our Tragedy and Their Hope

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IRkCvubUGCM

New World Order Quotes
http://nwsarchive.wordpress.com/2007/09/30/new-world-order-quotes/

 



For home builders, the worst is to come

For home builders, the worst is to come

MSN Money
October 2, 2007

The era of NINJA (“no income, no job or assets” ) subprime loans sold by fast-talking storefront mortgage brokers is dead, after all. By some estimates, up to three quarters of sales made in Southern California, Nevada and Florida in the go-go era of 2004-2006 involved some sort of fraud, particularly in the form of exaggerated income.

Foreclosure rates are soaring, and as those owners are kicked out of their homes for not paying, the structures are sitting empty, with no one waiting in line to buy at any price. Meanwhile, more than $1 trillion in adjustable-rate loans will kick mortgage payments much higher by June 2008 for tens of thousands of homeowners, which will push foreclosure rates even higher as people simply walk away from houses they can’t afford. I saw this happen in the last down-cycle in Los Angeles in the late 1980s; it gets ugly and stays that way for years, not months.

According to a report by investment bank Punk Ziegel, there are 17.4 million vacant houses in the country, and only 4.3 million of those are second homes. That means there are more ownerless houses in the United States today as a percentage of total inventory than at any time since records have been kept.

Not only are there not enough qualified households available to take them over, but demographics are heading the opposite direction. A Punk Ziegel analysis shows that the number of people aged 25 to 34 — the age of most home buyers — peaked in 1989 and will not get back to that level until 2013.

Waiting for a bankruptcy

As a result of too few buyers facing too many homes, the rate of price depreciation has been accelerating, with a 3.9% year-over-year decline in July nationwide after a 3.4% decline in June and a 2.8% decline in May. There is little doubt that builders will be forced to write down more of their inventory as losses over the next quarter, further eroding book values.

Although there are pockets of strength, such as my hometown of Seattle, home values in areas like Detroit, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Tampa, Miami and Washington, D.C., are plunging, with year-over-year declines as great as 9.7%, according to data released by research group Case-Shiller.

Related News:

Homebuilders Liquidate Assets in Desperation Sales
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/ne….refer=realestate

Merill Lynch loses $5 Billion on subprime loss
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid…me

Washington Mutual Sees About 75% Drop In Q3 Profit
http://www.rttnews.com/sp/Quickfactsnew.asp?date=10/05/2007&item=50

Ohio Bank Fails
http://www.thestreet.com/s/ohio-bank-fails/ne….&cm_ite=NA

Canadian Dollar Reaches 31-Year High Against U.S. Dollar
http://www.economicsbriefing.com/2….-year-high.html

Dollar’s double blow from Vietnam and Qatar
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main…/10/03/bcnviet103.xml

US economy, housing crisis to worsen
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/video/stockmarket/19/56/newsvideo/306461

A Weaker US Dollar is Good for the United States and its Trading Situation – Economic Myth Busters
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2295.html

Greenspan’s Dark Legacy Unmasked
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?c..va&aid=6946

JPMorgan, Bank of America May Write Down Buyout Loans
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/new…EXwEC9A&refer=finance

New data show housing market ‘in freefall’
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl….tory/Business

Is the credit crisis over? Not so fast
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEd….2?pageNumber=3

Weak Dollar Prompts Record Foreign Buyouts of U.S. Companies
http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?id=7720834

Europe Urges Tough Line on Dollar
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3ef4c12-712d-11dc-98fc-0000779fd2ac.html

Indian economy ‘to overtake UK’
Business calls for euro action
Why the US Dollar Will Continue Its Downward Trend
Weak dollar prompts record foreign buyouts of U.S. companies
Dollar Peggers to Stretch the ‘Impossible Trinity’
China $200B Superfund To Drain Dollars
Pending Home Sales Index Hits Record Low
Iran Slashes Oil Sales In Dollars
Greenspan Says Solution to Inequality is to Lower U.S. Wages
The Con That Turned the World Against America
U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall to Lowest Level in More Than Six Years
The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007
Big chill looms for the economy as new mortgages fall sharply
Greenspan Warns Good Times Are Over
Dollar Crunch Puts Gold Centre Stage
Euro Bursts To Fresh Dollar High
Dow surges to record high
The Worst Recession in 25 years?
Largest U.S. Bank: Profit Down 60%
U.S. $10 trillion in the red
Fears over cracks in Britain’s gold stock
Gold hits 28-year peak, platinum near all-time high
Gold rises as dollar sinks like a rock
How Economy Could Survive $100 Oil
Bush Disappointed Spending Bills Not Passed
Private Student Loan Bubble Could Burst
Greenspan on market upheaval
ING Direct steps in as US bank collapses
35K state workers get layoff notices
As Prices Soar, U.S. Food Aid Buys Less
Freddie Mac chief warns of recession
Oil Prices Rise As Dollar Falls
FDIC Shuts Down NetBank Due to Defaults
Gold Hits 28 Year High
EU’s Almunia Worried By Dollar’s Fall
New-Home Sales Tumble to 7-Year Low
U.S. Government About to be Broke

 



Unusual Amount of Put Options Just Before 9/11 Attack

9/11: Unusual volumes on Put Options just before the attack. Swiss study

9/11 Blogger
September 30, 2007

September 11, 2001: Unusual volumes on Put Options just before the attack. Swiss study

Says the 11 September 2007 issue of Les Echos, the leading French financial newspaper ]

The paper continues:

Six years after the attacks, a study has been released by two professors of the university of Zurich on the atypical volumes of put options placed before the attacks on World Trade Centre.

The authors, one specialist in derivatives, the other a specialist in econometrics, studied the options to sell (put options), used to speculate on the fall in the price of 20 large American groups.

(Read the full the French article below – Lesage translation)

“Atypical volumes, very rare on certain titles, lead to suspicions of insider trading. ” Six years after the attacks of World Trade Center, it is the disconcerting conclusion of a recent study by Marc Chesney and Loriano Mancini, professors at the University of Zurich.

The authors, one a specialist in derivatives, the other a specialist in econometrics, worked on the options to sell, used to speculate on the fall, of 20 great American groups, in particular in aeronautics and finance.

Their analysis relates to the transactions carried out between the 6 and September 10, 2001 compared to the average volumes recorded over long period (ten years for the majority of the companies).

The two specialists, in addition, calculated the probability of several options of the same sector having significant volumes in a few days.

“We tried to see whether the movements recorded on certain titles little before the attacks were common. We show that, for certain companies like American Airlines, United Airlines, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, Citigroup, Marsh & McLehnan, movements are scarce from a statistical point of view, a fortiori in comparison to the volumes observed for other values like Coke or Hewlett-Packard, explains Marc Chesney, a former professor with (the prestigious business school) HEC, author of “Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorism” (published by Ellipses Editions).

“For example, 1.535 contracts of options to sell in the term October 2001, with 30 dollars, were exchanged on American Airlines on September 10, against a daily average of approximately 24 contracts over the three previous weeks “the fact that the market is bear at the time” does not explain enough these surprising volumes “

“Enormous” profits:

The authors also studied the profitability of the options to sell, and of purchase, for an investor having bought a product between the 6th and the 10th “For certain titles, the profits were enormous. For example, investors having acquired options to sell of Citigroup with a maturity at October 2001 could potentially have gained more than 15 million dollars “,He said.

The conjunction of the data between volumes and profitability, the two authors conclude “the probability that there were offences of initiates (insider trading) is strong for American Airlines, United Airlines, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America, Citigroup and JP Morgan.

It is not a legal proof but it is the findings of statistical methods confirming signs of irregularities “.

The study is certainly not the first on possible insider trading in connection to the attacks but it is disconcerting in comparison with the conclusions of the regulatory authorities. As of September 2001, the Securities Exchange Commission and its European counterparts were interested in the atypical stock exchange movements before the attacks.

In an official statement of July 2004, the American regulator stated that it examined more than 9,5 million transactions in the weeks preceding September 11, then delivered its conclusions to the National Commission on the terrorist attacks (The 9/11 Comission).

According to this commission, unusual transactions certainly took place but each had a non-criminal explanation. The authorities evoke, for example, analyst’s investor advice to explain certain rises of volumes.

Same tone from the ex-COB now the AMF (French SEC), which states in its annual report of 2002: “the elements obtained forbid to show any evidence that financial groups related to the instigators of the attacks could have used the Stock Exchange to realise operations”

MARINA ALCARAZ
http://www.lesechos.fr/info/marches/4620847.htm