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Ron Paul Will Finish 3rd in Iowa

Ron Paul Will Finish 3rd in Iowa

Nolan Chart
January 2, 2008

Zogby currently shows Ron Paul tied with Giuliani and Thompson at 8%, and 3 points behind McCain in Iowa, among likely Republican caucus voters.

Another Zogby poll in November showed that Independents and Democrats represent 60% of Paul’s support nationwide. From the last paragraph of Zogby’s press release:

“Paul was the big winner among that universe of voters, winning 33%, compared to 19% for Giuliani, 15% for Romney, and 13% for Thompson.”

If this poll is at all reflective of Paul’s true support, and holds true in Iowa, then his real polling number in Iowa is closer to 20%, which would give him at least a 3rd place finish.

After that, all the rules may change.

 

Ron Paul Running Third in New Hampshire According to Oddsmakers

Gambling911
January 1, 2008

He may have been excluded from participating in an upcoming Fox News New Hampshire debate, but that hasn’t stopped the betting market from overwhelmingly giving US Presidential hopeful Ron Paul a third place finish in the “Live Free or Die” state, well ahead of both Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani.

The oddsmakers at BetUS.com had Ron Paul listed with +1000 odds to win New Hampshire one week before the primary. Compare that with Mitt Romney as the slight -120 favorite and John McCain at even odds. For those of you unfamiliar with how to read the American betting odds displayed at BetUS, +1000 simply means that a $100 bet would pay out $1000 or a $1 bet would pay out $10.

Political prediction markets provide us — the consumers of this information — with a way to cut through this clutter.

A prediction market is a bit like the stock market, except that you are buying shares whose value depends on the success of a political candidate, rather than the profits earned by a corporation. And just as stock prices are a useful barometer of the health of a company, so too the price of a prediction contract is a barometer of the health of a political campaign.

A third place finish in New Hampshire would be something that Ron Paul supporters savor since it solidifies their candidate’s true popularity in the race while putting to rest once and for all the idea that Paul’s supporters are nothing but Internet bots that just happen to be able to raise nearly $20 million in a single quarter.

Gambling911.com reporter, Jennifer Reynolds, believes that if Ron Paul is not seen as a viable candidate, people will simply vote for the individual they believe can win (i.e. a Mitt Romney or a Rudy Giuliani), even though they have a preference for the long time Texas Congressman.

“I have never subscribed to the ‘who is most popular’ method of picking a candidate, I prefer to choose based on substance, but there are many who still believe that it is wasting a vote to vote for the man you want to win if you think he could lose and instead choose a lesser candidate with more of a chance.”

A third place or higher finish in New Hampshire would instill confidence in voters that Ron Paul does indeed have a fighting chance.

Christopher Costigan, Publisher of the Gambling911.com website, points out that this information will have many a Ron Paul supporter extremely delighted in the face of his exclusion by Fox News.

“We have gotten so many emails related to an organized boycott of Fox News and it’s obvious the new year got off to a bad start for Ron Paul supporters with the news about his exclusion,” Costigan said. “As we get closer to a particular race like the New Hampshire primary, these odds tend to become more accurate and there is some suggestion that the Fox ‘controversy, which CNN is starting to capitalize on, will only help to increase his chances of a win in New Hampshire.”

 


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