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Morgan Stanley issues full US recession alert

Morgan Stanley issues full US recession alert

Daily Telegraph
December 10, 2007

Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for the US economy, warning of a sharp slowdown in business investment and a “perfect storm” for consumers as the housing slump spreads.

In a report “Recession Coming” released today, the bank’s US team said the credit crunch had started to inflict serious damage on US companies.

“Slipping sales and tightening credit are pushing companies into liquidation mode, especially in motor vehicles,” it said.

“Three-month dollar Libor spreads have jumped by 60 to 80 basis points over the last month. High yield spreads have widened even more significantly. The absolute cost of borrowing is higher than in June.”

“As delinquencies and defaults soar, lenders are tightening credit for commercial, credit card and auto lending, as well as for all mortgage borrowers,” said the report, written by the bank’s chief US economist Dick Berner. He said the foreclosure rate on residential mortgages had reached a 19-year high of 5.59pc in the third quarter while the glut of unsold properties would lead to a 40pc crash in housing construction.

“We think overall housing starts will run below one million units in each of the next two years — a level not seen in the history of the modern data since 1959,” he said.

Although the US job market has apparently held up well, an average monthly fall of 138,000 in the number of self-employed workers over the last quarter suggests it may now be buckling. “Consumers face what could be a perfect storm,” said Mr Berner.

The partial freeze on subprime mortgage rates announced last week by US treasury secretary Hank Paulson may help cushion the blow for some banks, but it could equally backfire by adding a “risk premium” that drives even more lenders out of the mortgage market.

Like Goldman Sachs, and Lehman Brothers, the bank no longer believes Asia and Europe will come to the rescue as America slows.

It has slashed its 2008 growth forecast for Japan from 1.9pc to 0.9pc, and warned that credit stress will weigh heavily on the eurozone.

Mr Berner said US demand is likely to contract by 1pc each quarter for the first nine months of 2008, but the picture could be far worse if the Federal Reserve fails to slash rates fast enough. It is betting on a quarter point cut this week, with three more cuts by the middle of next year. “We expect the Fed to insure against the worst outcome,” he said.

Morgan Stanley is the first major Wall Street bank to warn that it is may now be too late to stop a recession, though most have shifted to an ultra-cautious stance in recent weeks.

The bank at first treated the August crunch as a “mid-cycle correction”, much like the financial storm after Russia’s default in 1998. But the collapse of the US commercial paper market has now continued for seventeen weeks, suggesting a “fundamental deleveraging of the banking system.”

Mr Berner — known at Morgan Stanley as the “resident bull” — is one of the most closely watched analysts on Wall Street. While he began to turn bearish last April as the credit markets turned nasty, the latest report is written in tones that may is rattle the fast-diminishing band of optimists.

 


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re: Foreclosure Fraud, FREDDIE MAC, Well Fargo, Judicial Corruption

Any representation to Wall Street Investors by FREDDIE MAC or by WELLS FARGO that its reported $$$ billion dollar losses are due to people defaulting on their mortgages should be weighed against the fact that (in states such as Louisiana), Freddie Mac and Wells Fargo needlessly pays DEBT COLLECTION firms outrageous legal fees for corporate lawyers to outmaneuver –and even persecute people who file court proceedings in opposition to fraudulent foreclosures. In Louisiana, Wells Fargo and FREDDIE MAC are 2 mortgage companies which benefit from fraudulent foreclosures and entrenched real estate and mortgage fraud racketeering schemes. Also, in lawsuits for “Unfair Debt Collection” damages, collectors get to make more $$ via litigation, along with co-conspirators who enjoy pieces of the foreclosure pie. But thanks to federal authorities such as U.S. Attorney Jim Letten and U.S. Attorney David Dugas, real estate racketeers in Louisiana have nothing to worry about. Verification of what I have written is posted on my http://www.lawgrace.org website.

http://www.lawgrace.org/2007/12/08/my-december-7-2007-comment-posted-to-the-times-picayune-blog-about-the-news-article-entitled-%e2%80%9cjudge-gets-debt-reprieve-badeaux-has-skipped-mortgage-payments%e2%80%9d-the-foreclosure-of-this-lo/
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*Also, posted on NEWSBLAZE.COM, see this article: “Mortgage Mess, Foreclosure Fraud and Impediments to Justice:”

Most critical to the Foreclosure Crisis is FORECLOSURE FRAUD, which enables MORTGAGE LENDERS to ILLEGALLY FLIP properties. In Louisiana, 2 particular mortgage companies which benefit from fraudulent foreclosures are Wells Fargo and FREDDIE MAC! It is HIGHLY COMMON for a DEBT COLLECTOR attorney to file a foreclosure: (i) in the name of a DEFUNCT mortgage company;(ii) in the name of a mortgage company which is NO LONGER holder of the security interest (the promissory note); or (iii) file a foreclosure and AFFIX a “ransom” amount (the collector’s fee) far exceeding what the promissory note “Acceleration Clause” authorizes.

Despite a property owner’s entitlement to Challenge CONTRARY-TO-LAW loss of his / her home, most property owners LACK consumer and legal knowledge; the Court System is REFRACTORY; and there are limited attorneys with acumen to pursue Consumer Law. Also, when borrowers sue for “Unfair Debt Collection Practices,” damages, the collector gets to make more $$ through prolonged litigation, as co-conspirators enjoy the foreclosure pie.

Investors need to become more astute about how mortgage servicers’ misdeeds hurts borrowers as well as siphons incalculable amounts of money from what Investors should reap. (See “Limiting Abuse and Opportunism By Mortgage Servicers,” AND “Private Property Rights Deferred: Has Predatory Mortgage Servicing Destroyed The American Dream” by Rawle Andrews, Jr., Esq.,and Leroy Jones, Jr., J.D. Visit: http://www.msfraud.org/index.html.)

http://newsblaze.com/story/20071203130614tsop.nb/newsblaze/TOPSTORY/Top-Stories.
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**also see:
“ILLEGAL REAL ESTATE FLIPPING…”
http://www.lawgrace.org/2007/06/21/illegal-real-estate-flipping-unfair-enrichment-etc/

====================================================================
Barbara Ann Jackson
Law & Grace, Inc.
http://www.lawgrace.org
LOUISIANA

Comment by Barbara Ann Jackson




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