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Relative of Merrill Lynch Founder Predicts Stock Market Crash


Relative of Merrill Lynch Founder Predicts Stock Market Crash


Kerri Panchuk
DSNews
October 30, 2007

In a market where fears over the subprime shakedown are spreading pessimism nationwide, Charles Merrill, the cousin of the man who founded Merrill Lynch & Co., is predicting a stock market crash that will put the 1929 crash to shame.

Merrill, in an exclusive interview with a financial author, said, “There is going to be a major stock market crash, so protect your assets. Buy physical gold and hide it.”

Merrill also discussed all the changes at Merrill Lynch that indicate a potential market crises—even alluding to the company’s chief executive officer, who stepped down this week.

“Merrill Lynch is crashing, due to the ineptness of the CEO,” Merrill said. “No matter who is running Merrill Lynch & Co., it’s going to need a regimen of restraint and recuperation after getting badly bruised by the global credit market shakedown. I predict a house of dominos, and the whole stock market is going to crash.”

Lynch’s less-than-encouraging remarks were part of an interview with writer Michael Grace, who is writing a book called, “The Final Great Depression.”

During the interview, Merrill concluded, “There is so much wealth in Palm Springs … from inherited to funny money, and I’m advising my friends to buy gold. Grace’s book on the ‘final depression’ sounds like a novel or fantasy but unfortunately it is a picture of our horrible future here in America. My cousin Charlie must be turning over in his grave.”

 

Oil Crisis in Summer ’09: War in Iran. Gasoline rationing. A military draft. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan. Double-digit inflation and unemployment

Herald Tribune
November 2, 2007

WASHINGTON: War in Iran. Gasoline rationing. A military draft. A Chinese takeover of Taiwan. Double-digit inflation and unemployment. The draining of the strategic petroleum reserve.

This is where current energy policy is going in the United States, according to a nightmare scenario played out as a policy-making exercise on Thursday by a group of former top government officials.

Two bipartisan business-supported groups sponsored an elaborately staged role-playing game called Oil ShockWave that tried to dramatize the effect of American dependence on oil imported from unstable and unfriendly parts of the world.

The organizers have an agenda: They hope to prompt Congress to act on energy legislation and to push the issue into the presidential campaign.

Read Full Article Here

 

CDS traders warn of ‘blood on streets’

BBC
October 27, 2007

The mood in credit derivatives markets turned ugly on Thursday, with the cost of insuring corporate debt hitting multi-week highs on both sides of the Atlantic.

Speculation was rife that leading major investment banks were facing additional losses linked to complex mortgage-backed securities, while worries mounted over the health of major financial guarantors.

“It’s scary out there — there’s blood on the streets,” a trader at a US brokerage said. “It’s a real mess.”

In the US, the perceived risk of owning corporate debt jumped to a seven-week high, with the cost to insure a $10m portfolio of investment-grade debt reaching $67,000, data from Phoenix Partners Group showed.

Confidence in Citigroup and Merrill Lynch, as measured by their credit default swaps, slumped to lows not seen since the height of the credit squeeze in August.

Five-year credit default swaps tied to Citigroup widened to 60 basis points, meaning it cost $60,000 annually to insure Citigroup’s debt against default for five years. A couple of weeks ago, that figure stood at $27,000.

Contracts on Merrill Lynch, which last week posted the largest quarterly loss in its 93-year history, rose $18,000 to $103,000. CDS on UBS rose 10bp to 51bp, Deutsche Bank said. The contracts stood at about 6bp in May. Contracts on Credit Suisse rose 4bp to 52bp from 10bp in June.

Bond insurers, or monolines, were also hit hard.

“[These triple-A rated companies are] exposed to the crumbling housing market,” said Gavan Nolan, an analyst at derivatives data provider Markit. “Investors in monolines will be waiting for the coming months of housing data with trepidation,” Mr Nolan said.

CDS on MBIA Insurance rocketed to a four-year high, of 345bp, CMA Datavision said.

Last week the insurer posted $36.6m net loss and halted its share buy-back programme.

Contracts on the bond insurance unit of Ambac Financial climbed to a five-year high of 310bp.

Gimme Credit, an independent research term, downgraded both MBIA and Ambac this week.

In Europe, the iTraxx Crossover index of 50 mostly high-yield companies widened by 18 bp to 338bp, the biggest rise since August, according to Deutsche Bank data.

The iTraxx Europe index, which tracks 125 investment-grade companies, rose 3.75bp to 41bp. It was the biggest one-day jump since early September.

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